I am not an Economist

First and foremost, I am not an economist. I write this article as someone old enough to remember H1N1, SARS, the Great Financial Crisis, and the DotCom crash. I’m quite certain that there were other economic challenges earlier in my life but I was young enough, or naive enough, to take no notice of their impact on my life.

Anyone who pays attention such things knows that the stock market is experiencing a great deal of volatility right now. Most people are scared of contracting COVID19. Businesses are shuttered. Some people are losing their jobs. Other people are trying to hoard essential products. Pictures of empty grocery shelves are everywhere.

It’s easy to be afraid right now.

Again, I am not an economist. However, you should have faith that the stock market will recover. When? No one knows. Yet, I am 99.999% certain that this is not the end of capitalism. The supply chains are still running. Grocery shelves are still being stocked. Prescriptions are still being filled.

Very smart people all over the planet are working on a vaccine for COVID19. They will find one.

What I think you should do

Do not panic with your investments! If you can avoid it, then do not sell anything in your portfolio right now. The only way to lock in a loss is to sell when the price falls.

The stock market will recover from this dip. No one knows how whether the recovery will happen by the end of 2020, or whether it will recover in 2 years. However, the impact of COVID19 will become an item in the rearview mirror when the stock market starts to go up again. Just like H1N1, SARS, the Great Financial Crisis, the DotCom crash, and all the other economic shocks that have preceded this virus.

Should you be one of the fortunate ones who has stable employment right now, then I urge you to stick to your current investing schedule. This suggestion is based on the assumption that you have a fully-funded emergency fund of atleast 6 months of expenses. If your emergency fund isn’t this full, then cut out non-essential spending until it’s nice and fat. You’ll never regret having an emergency fund when you need one!

Keep your investing schedule in place. I invest monthly. I plan to continue investing unless circumstances drastically change. A long time ago, I decided that timing the market would only drive me nuts so I’ve never attempted to market-time my investments. Instead, I opted to making regular investments into the stock market every month. Money goes in – dividends get paid & re-invested – money goes in – dividends get paid & re-invested… ad infinitum…

If you have an investing schedule, then stick to it. Right now, investors have the ability to buy equities when prices are low. Again, I’m going to state the obvious – the stock market is low right now. No one – and I mean NO ONE – knows if we’ve hit the bottom of whether the stock market will continue to fall over the next few weeks. Yet, those who invest in a broadband index funds (or exchange-traded fund or mutual fund) and who stay invested for the long-term will see positive returns.

Note that I’m only referring to buying broad-based index funds and similar products during this downturn in the market. If you’re the sort who engages in stock picking, then I wish you all the best. Stock analysis is not something that I would suggest. I have no way of knowing which stocks will recover to unseen heights and which ones will crash when the underlying business fails.

Learn from my mistake

Full disclosure: I am a self-taught buy-and-hold investor who believes in dollar-cost averaging. This means that I skim money from each paycheque to invest in the stock market on a regular monthly schedule. I invest in exchange-traded funds, and I’ve done well.

However, I haven’t always made the smartest decisions with my money. I’ve made significant errors with my own investments. One of the worst decisions I made was back in 2008 when the stock market plunged. The value of the stock market was falling and I made a HUGE mistake. I stopped investing money on the way down!!! My fear took hold and I decided to wait until the “market got better”. Thankfully, I was smart enough not to sell but I wasn’t smart enough to stick to my strategy to dollar-cost average into the market.

Had I stuck to my strategy of investing money every month, I would have been buying during the market crash. This is known as “buying low“, and it’s an exceptionally good thing when you plan to hold onto investments for a very long time.

If I hadn’t erred, I would have taken full advantage of the recovery that started in 2009 and that ran up until a few weeks ago. My portfolio might have been big enough to let me retire a few years earlier than planned had I not made this monumental error.

Though I can’t remember exactly when, I did re-start my investing schedule and I’ve stuck to it ever since. COVID19 is not going to prevent me from counting to save-invest-learn-repeat. I will still move money from my paycheque to my investing account. Every month, I’ll continue to buy units in my exchange-traded funds. I will not stop regular investing this time around.

And if my income isn’t stable?

If your income is variable, or in doubt, then your focus needs to be on eliminating all non-essential spending from your life so you can squirrel away your cash. Right now, your priority has to be survival – rent/mortgage, food & prescription medicines. Everything else has to go on the back-burner until you get a handle on how you’re going to continue to receive an income.

Focus on beefing up your emergency fund. That money that used to go to drive-through coffees? Stick it in your emergency fund. Your monthly massage? Social distancing means massages are out for a while. This is a really good time to cut subscriptions to things that no longer bring you joy. Find the fat in your budget and trim it away so that you have money to live on if your income goes away.

Keep your money liquid in a high interest savings account. Allow me to state the obvious: you will need cash to get you through the hard times in case you lose your job. This is not the time to be making extra payments to your debts, nor is it the time to start investing in the stock market. Gather your money in a safe place so it will be there when you need it.

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Weekly Tip: Stop non-essential spending for the next few weeks. Top up your emergency fund. Stay indoors. Wash your hands. Stay healthy!