Forgive me in advance, as this post is going to touch on several things. I don’t have all the answers, but I have lots of questions.
Today, I watched a couple of YouTube videos about poverty in Europe. They could’ve just as easily been about North America, but The Algorithms suggested videos about Europe. It hardly matters what country I was viewing. The story is nearly universal. Once a person falls into debt and/or poverty, there are precious few ways out of it.
The first video involved young people who’ve graduated from university and cannot find a job. It’s not for lack of trying. The jobs simply aren’t there to be had. So young people who can do so are leaving their home countries to build lives everywhere. Why wouldn’t they leave? How do you create jobs that will motivate people to stay, to put down roots, to start families? What kind of a future does a country have when its young people have to move away in order to fulfill their dreams and ambitions? What has to happen to entice the young people to return? Will the country be around 100-200 years from now if their best, brightest and most talented leave to build satisfying lives elsewhere?
That same video also discussed how increasing interest rates skewered the incomes of those formerly in the “middle class”. Countries borrowed money and the terms of the loans required a decrease in labour costs. This is economist-speak for employers reducing salary costs. The good folk that believed they were solidly in the “middle class” saw the value of their paycheques plummet while their debt obligations remained the same. More than a few lost their homes and businesses. When incomes are slashed and debt stays in place, how are people supposed to recover from that particular double-whammy? What do you do when you realize that your economic status was tenuous at best? More myth than reality?
There are no easy answers to my questions. You can have the 12-month emergency fund to “tide you over”, but there has to be a job waiting for you at the end of those 12 months. If there’s no job, then you’ve simply exhausted your emergency fund. Without another job to go to, you’ve only delayed the inevitable results of being unemployed: homelessness, couch-surfing, losing friends, deteriorating networks, separation from family, etc… It’s grim.
Getting out and staying out of debt offers some protection from rising interest rates. Payments that used to go to creditors can stay in your bank account. You can use those funds to pay for the rising costs of food, housing, utilities, and any other price hikes associated with inflation’s impact on the economy. Yet if your paycheque doesn’t go far enough, what choice do you have other than credit to pay the minimum monthly bills? When your rent eats 75% of your paycheque, can you really be faulted for using credit to pay for the necessities that the remaining 25% doesn’t cover?
For most of us, the reality is that getting out of debt generally means having a steady income from which payments can be made. When it takes 25 years, or even 15 years, to pay off a mortgage, a borrower is making a huge bet that they will have income over that long period. In today’s world of contract workers and gig-workers, there’s a whole swath of people who might be better off not taking that bet. After all, a bank can just as easily foreclose for failure to pay at the 20 year mark as it can at the 2 year mark. Can you imagine how awful it would be to make 20 years of mortgage payments then lose your home if something permanently reduced your income?
Yet, at the same time, owning a home is still one of the few ways for a not-rich person to build wealth. Talk to the people who bought houses in Vancouver and Toronto as recently as 5 or 10 years ago. The values of their home have skyrocketed. Some lucky folk have houses that have earned more in equity growth than their owners have earned through a paycheque. Buying a home in a city with a strong economy and paying it off is still one of the ways to build wealth for your dotage.
And speaking of your retirement, what recourse is there if your retirement is adversely impacted by market forces beyond your control? If going back to work is not an option for you due to your health, age, or lack of job openings, what do you do?
These are the questions that keep me up at night. We always hear about the success stories, the people who’ve made it. They should be celebrated – they’ve overcome the odds and they can serve as a hopeful example of what’s possible. Yet there are countless others who did not achieve that same success. They worked hard. They saved. They followed the rules, yet they didn’t get their happily-ever-after on the financial front. What are the answers available to them?
Like I said at the start of this post, there are no easy answers. If there were, these problems would’ve been solved by now. All I know is that there are serious structural problems that are encouraging and reinforcing income inequality on a global scale.