I am not an Economist

First and foremost, I am not an economist. I write this article as someone old enough to remember H1N1, SARS, the Great Financial Crisis, and the DotCom crash. I’m quite certain that there were other economic challenges earlier in my life but I was young enough, or naive enough, to take no notice of their impact on my life.

Anyone who pays attention such things knows that the stock market is experiencing a great deal of volatility right now. Most people are scared of contracting COVID19. Businesses are shuttered. Some people are losing their jobs. Other people are trying to hoard essential products. Pictures of empty grocery shelves are everywhere.

It’s easy to be afraid right now.

Again, I am not an economist. However, you should have faith that the stock market will recover. When? No one knows. Yet, I am 99.999% certain that this is not the end of capitalism. The supply chains are still running. Grocery shelves are still being stocked. Prescriptions are still being filled.

Very smart people all over the planet are working on a vaccine for COVID19. They will find one.

What I think you should do

Do not panic with your investments! If you can avoid it, then do not sell anything in your portfolio right now. The only way to lock in a loss is to sell when the price falls.

The stock market will recover from this dip. No one knows how whether the recovery will happen by the end of 2020, or whether it will recover in 2 years. However, the impact of COVID19 will become an item in the rearview mirror when the stock market starts to go up again. Just like H1N1, SARS, the Great Financial Crisis, the DotCom crash, and all the other economic shocks that have preceded this virus.

Should you be one of the fortunate ones who has stable employment right now, then I urge you to stick to your current investing schedule. This suggestion is based on the assumption that you have a fully-funded emergency fund of atleast 6 months of expenses. If your emergency fund isn’t this full, then cut out non-essential spending until it’s nice and fat. You’ll never regret having an emergency fund when you need one!

Keep your investing schedule in place. I invest monthly. I plan to continue investing unless circumstances drastically change. A long time ago, I decided that timing the market would only drive me nuts so I’ve never attempted to market-time my investments. Instead, I opted to making regular investments into the stock market every month. Money goes in – dividends get paid & re-invested – money goes in – dividends get paid & re-invested… ad infinitum

If you have an investing schedule, then stick to it. Right now, investors have the ability to buy equities when prices are low. Again, I’m going to state the obvious – the stock market is low right now. No one – and I mean NO ONE – knows if we’ve hit the bottom of whether the stock market will continue to fall over the next few weeks. Yet, those who invest in a broadband index funds (or exchange-traded fund or mutual fund) and who stay invested for the long-term will see positive returns.

Note that I’m only referring to buying broad-based index funds and similar products during this downturn in the market. If you’re the sort who engages in stock picking, then I wish you all the best. Stock analysis is not something that I would suggest. I have no way of knowing which stocks will recover to unseen heights and which ones will crash when the underlying business fails.

Learn from my mistake

Full disclosure: I am a self-taught buy-and-hold investor who believes in dollar-cost averaging. This means that I skim money from each paycheque to invest in the stock market on a regular monthly schedule. I invest in exchange-traded funds, and I’ve done well.

However, I haven’t always made the smartest decisions with my money. I’ve made significant errors with my own investments. One of the worst decisions I made was back in 2008 when the stock market plunged. The value of the stock market was falling and I made a HUGE mistake. I stopped investing money on the way down!!! My fear took hold and I decided to wait until the “market got better”. Thankfully, I was smart enough not to sell but I wasn’t smart enough to stick to my strategy to dollar-cost average into the market.

Had I stuck to my strategy of investing money every month, I would have been buying during the market crash. This is known as “buying low“, and it’s an exceptionally good thing when you plan to hold onto investments for a very long time.

If I hadn’t erred, I would have taken full advantage of the recovery that started in 2009 and that ran up until a few weeks ago. My portfolio might have been big enough to let me retire a few years earlier than planned had I not made this monumental error.

Though I can’t remember exactly when, I did re-start my investing schedule and I’ve stuck to it ever since. COVID19 is not going to prevent me from counting to save-invest-learn-repeat. I will still move money from my paycheque to my investing account. Every month, I’ll continue to buy units in my exchange-traded funds. I will not stop regular investing this time around.

And if my income isn’t stable?

If your income is variable, or in doubt, then your focus needs to be on eliminating all non-essential spending from your life so you can squirrel away your cash. Right now, your priority has to be survival – rent/mortgage, food & prescription medicines. Everything else has to go on the back-burner until you get a handle on how you’re going to continue to receive an income.

Focus on beefing up your emergency fund. That money that used to go to drive-through coffees? Stick it in your emergency fund. Your monthly massage? Social distancing means massages are out for a while. This is a really good time to cut subscriptions to things that no longer bring you joy. Find the fat in your budget and trim it away so that you have money to live on if your income goes away.

Keep your money liquid in a high interest savings account. Allow me to state the obvious: you will need cash to get you through the hard times in case you lose your job. This is not the time to be making extra payments to your debts, nor is it the time to start investing in the stock market. Gather your money in a safe place so it will be there when you need it.

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Weekly Tip: Stop non-essential spending for the next few weeks. Top up your emergency fund. Stay indoors. Wash your hands. Stay healthy!

Some People Always Make Money

As I write this post, the world is facing the pandemic known as COVID-19. I’m not a scientist, nor am I a doctor. This post is going to be about how some people always make money, no matter what is going on in the world.

This pandemic is a prime example. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you cannot help but have heard that the global stock markets have been a wee bit volatile as of late. Investors are losing money as the value of the equities in their portfolio drop in tune with the stock market drops.

Yet, some people will be making money right now. Why?

It’s simple, Gentle Reader. The stock market is on sale right now. Much like buying clothing in the off-season, or winter boots at the start of spring, people with money are buying stocks while the stock market is down. Stocks are on sale. This is the time to buy.

Stock Market is Drastically Down

If you have the money, then buy now. One of my favourite exchange traded funds – XDV by BlackRock – was down to $19.93/unit when I checked it at the time of writing this post. It had been near $30/unit a mere two weeks before this article was posted. The portion of my portfolio invested in XDV has dropped significantly, but guess what?

I’m a long-term investor who believes that the market will recover. Now is the time to buy more XDV shares because they’re on sale. Over time, this ETF’s value will go back up and, if I buy now, I will benefit from having bought additional shares when the price was lower than normal due to market turmoil. Do I like seeing the value of my portfolio go down? NO!!! Do I like buying dividend-paying investments when they’re on sale? YES!!!

Do you own research. Check out MorningStar. Visit the Motley Fool website and other websites that teach investors how to invest. Figure out which industries are hurting right now due to the pandemic, and determine if you believe that they will recover once a vaccine is found for COVID-19. When the panic has passed and life gets back to normal, which companies and industries will have the most ground to regain?

Keep Your Powder Dry

In the personal finance world, this phrase means having savings set aside for stock market circumstances like the ones we’re currently facing. It means having money available to invest when the stock market dips. This money is separate and apart from your emergency fund and the money you spend on the necessities of life. The reason you’ve set this money aside is so that you can take advantage of those times when the stock market goes on sale.

Full disclosure – I’m a buy-and-hold investor who believes in dollar-cost averaging. Money is skimmed off my paycheque and into my investment account so that I can buy units in my exchange-traded funds every month. I am not one of the people who has buckets of cash sitting around and waiting for buying opportunities like the ones that are on offer right now.

The people who are deploying their powder right now are, very likely, setting themselves up for some phenomenal returns over the next few years. They’re buying low because the stock market is down. So long as they hang on to their purchases through the recovery, they then have the option of selling high in a few years from now.

Successful Investors Do Not Panic

This is not the time to sell your investments! Even though they may be down, the stock market will not go to zero. The stock market will recover.

Selling now means locking in your losses. You will foreclose your ability to participate in the recovery, since your crystal ball will not tell you exactly when to buy back in.

Turn off your stock market notifications. Don’t look at your portfolio every day. Trust that the stock market will recover. The pandemic is going to cause turmoil, but the stock market has survived turmoil before. This time is not any different – the stock market will recover. You will want to be part of that recovery.

Buy low (which is right now) – hang on during the recovery (which could take a few years) – sell high (which is a few years from now).

Again, some people always make money. They do so because they invest in equities. They don’t panic when things turn volatile. They keep their powder dry. They’re around to participate in the recovery because they never sell. Be like those people.

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Weekly Tip: Wash your hands. Don’t hoard toilet paper and wipes. Stay informed and don’t panic. Don’t sell your portfolio.