Housing Prices & Interest Rates

When I was a kid, one of the things I learned from my mother was that interest rates are inversely correlated to housing prices. If interest rates are going down, then housing prices are going up.

Over the last 12 months, I’ve seen this lesson play out in real life. By the time this blog post goes live, we will have passed the one-year anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, there are cities in this country where the housing market is red-hot. People are tripping over themselves to buy homes and they’re “winning” bidding wars to do so.

Five-year mortgage rates in my corner of the world had been on offer for as low as 1.84% up until just recently. At the time of writing this article, they’re slowly creeping up but a few can still be found at just around 2%. The Talking Heads in the media are predicting that 5-year rates will increase steadily over the next year. They say that this will be due to the economy fully re-opening as everyone gets their vaccine.

Who am I to argue with the Talking Heads?

The corollary to my mother’s great insight is that house prices drop as interest rates rise. This is due to the fact that fewer people can afford house payments when the cost of borrowing increases. Fewer people buying is a fancy way of saying lower demand. Less demand for something forces sellers to drop prices in order to sell their goods. In the housing market, rising interest rates are very strongly linked to decreasing housing prices.

For the past 10 years or so, the interest rates for mortgages have been less than 4%. I can tell you that my very first mortgage – taken out nearly 20 years ago – was for 6.5%. That seems astronomically high by today’s standards! When I was teenager and working part time as a grocery store cashier, I worked with folks who were thrilled to get a mortgage at 8%. The super-low mortgage rates of the past decade have been normalized, and I worry that people forget that rates can also move in the other direction.

Two Minds

I’m of two minds when it comes to housing. Buying a house was a very smart move for me. I was fortunate enough to buy what I needed at a price that was less than 3 times my gross income. The mortgage payments were less than 30% of my take-home pay. I could afford the repairs and maintenance that come with a house. Taxes and insurance weren’t an onerous burden on top of these other costs. The monthly nut associated with my shelter did not inhibit my ability to invest for retirement, travel, and have a bit of fun with my family and friends.

In short, buying a house was a good move for me… 20 years ago.

Today, twenty years later, I’m not so sure that buying a house would be a good financial move for me. For starters, I would have to choose between servicing the monthly nut of homeownership and every other financial goal. My mortgage, property taxes, insurance, repairs & maintenance would render me house-poor for a very long time. There wouldn’t be room in my budget for things like retirement savings, travel, entertainment, vehicle replacement, or those little luxuries that make like easier. My financial life would revolve entirely around paying for my housing, and there would be no room for my other money priorities.

I used to think that renting was a bad idea. However, my perspective has become more nuanced. If renting allows one to have a balanced life, then I think it might be a good idea. Of course, that balance has to include maxing out all retirement savings and building an investing portfolio. Those investments need to be big enough to pay for rental accommodations when the paycheques stop arriving. Whether you own a house or rent your space, you need to pay for shelter one way or another.

Cheap rates aren’t here to stay.

Today’s very low 5-year mortgage rates will go up. Securing a mortgage at 1.84% is wonderful, but that rate is likely only going to be locked in for 5 years. (And only for those who were lucky enough to grab it!) At renewal, the rate might be 3.5% or higher. Can your crystal ball predict the future perfectly? Will your budget be able to survive the mortgage payment increase that will come with a higher mortgage rate? Are you positive that you’ll still have the same income that you have now?

Even if your job’s salary stays the same, will your other expenses do the same? I’ve noticed that the cost of my streaming service goes up every 18 months or so. The price of food hasn’t gone down, ever. Taxes seem to only ever move in one direction. The list goes on. Life gets more expensive every year, yet salaries and wages don’t always go up in tandem with the increased expenses of every day life.

So even if you were only of the lucky ones to grab a super-cheap mortgage rate for a five-year portion of your mortgage, I strongly urge you to calculate how much your mortgage payment will increase when you renew. It’s not too, too crazy to believe that the bond market will push the five year rate up by 50 basis points each year for the next five years. Add 2.5% to your current rate and see what your new payment will be. Can you handle it?

Alternatives

Your first option is to pick rich parents. It’s been my observation that some parents with an excess of money are willing to help their offspring purchase a home. Financially speaking, it’s wonderful to have that kind of help to get onto the property ladder.

Not all of us can pick our parents, so that means being a little more creative.

If I were starting out today, I’d be looking at becoming a landlord. Either I’d try to buy a house with a rental suite or I would have roommates. There would have to be someone else around to contribute to the mortgage payments. If my salary paid for the minimum monthly mortgage payment, then the tenant’s rent would be what I would use for the extra payments to principle.

Would it be ideal? No. Would it have to last forever? Also, no.

A third alternative would be waiting to buy. Like I said earlier, house prices will come down as mortgage rates go up. Figure out how much of a mortgage you can afford. This number will be different than what the bank says you can afford. After all, you’re the one who’ll be responsible for the payments so look at your budget and be realistic.

Once you know how much mortgage you can comfortably carry, open an account at EQ Bank and start salting that mortgage payment away. This benefits you two ways. First, you’ll get used to having a mortgage payment since you’ll have to make that payment once you’ve signed the mortgage documents. Second, this money will help you make as large a down payment as possible.

I’m not trying to dissuade you from buying a house. Truly, I’m not. I just want you to think long and hard about the financial commitment that owning your own home will entail.

In a world without pensions, I am not persuaded that it’s a good idea for a person to spend 25-30 years paying off a mortgage without the ability to save for retirement. A mortgage debt that leads to an extended hand-to-mouth lifestyle is rarely a good thing. It limits options and inhibits one’s ability to pursue their true dreams, goals, and desires.

Retirement is coming, one way or another.

What the eyes don’t see, the heart won’t grieve…

Anonymous Online Poster

No matter how you look at it, retirement is coming.

And if you’re fortunate, you’ll get to pick when you retire. Should Life have other plans for you, then retirement may arrive unexpectedly. Either way, retirement is in your future. One of the best things you can do for Future You is to start saving today.

This year, the contribution deadline for the Registered Retirement Savings Plan is March 1, 2021. In other words, if you put money into your RRSP on or before March 1, 2021, then you will get a tax deduction that can be used against any taxes that you owe for the 2020 tax year.

Here’s a handy-dandy little chart to show you the maximum amount of money that you can put into your RRSP this year.

What’s that? You say that you don’t have $27,830 lying around to make this year’s contribution?

Do you have $1?

Fear not, Gentle Reader. The numbers listed on the chart are the maximum contribution limits. In an ideal world, you would have no trouble at all socking away this much money.

If you’re not one of the Very Fortunate Ones who can easily plunk $27,830 into your RRSP without batting an eye, then fret not. You will do what you can until you can do better. It’s really not more complicated than that.

If you can afford $1 per day, that’s $365 per year. It’s not a lot but it’s a whole lot more than nothing. If you don’t start saving this tiny daily amount, then I can assure you that you’ll regret your decision. Retiring solely on social benefits will not be comfortable.

At $5 per day, you’re looking at $1,825 per year. That’s not too shabby, but it’s also not the cat’s pyjamas. It means one less snack per day, or one less fancy coffee. (Hat tip to David Bach, who is the author of The Automatic Millionaire. This is one the first books that put yours truly on my current financial path.) Save a few calories – use your kitchen to save some money – throw that money into your RRSP and let it grow over the years.

Kick it up to $10 per day and wow! Now, you’re contributing several thousand dollars in a year. In a lot of places, $10 each day is less than you’d spend on parking your car at work. It’s less than getting a burger, fries and a drink at a fast food place. It’s not a whole lot of money, but it can certainly get you to the retirement you want if you consistently put it to good use. If you don’t believe me, check out what Mr. Money Mustache has to say about the $10 bill.

Pick your per diem.

I trust you see a pattern. By implementing a per diem for your RRSP, and setting up an automatic money transfer, you’ll be improving the chances that you’ll have a financially comfortable retirement.

Whatever amount works for your budget, that’s the amount that you should be sending to your RRSP. Before you even ask, $0 per day is not at all an appropriate amount to be saving.

Once siphoned from your daily chequing account and into your RRSP, your money will grow tax-free until withdrawn. How large will it grow? That’s up to you and/or your financial advisor.

In the interests of transparency, I will tell you that my portfolio is invested in exchange-traded funds with Vanguard Canada and iShares. I’ve gone to a fee only advisor for advice, but I do my own research and make my own investment decisions. I’m currently putting my money into equity products, after having spent 9.5 years investing solely in dividend ETFs. I’m a staunch buy-and-hold investor. That means I don’t sell after I buy. I buy what I believe to be good investments and then I just leave them alone for years and years and years. I still have the bank stocks that my parents bought for me when I was a baby…and I haven’t been a baby for a very long time!

You owe it to yourself to spend some time learning about investing your money. Save your money via automatic money transfers. Invest your money in equity products. Learn, learn, learn – as much as you can! There are books, blogs, YouTube, and people who all have information to share. Then repeat the process. Save – invest – learn – repeat!

Do not procrastinate.

Every day that you don’t open your RRSP and invest your money is a missed opportunity to grow your money in a tax-free environment. This is important because money grows faster when it is not taxed. To be very clear, money grows on a tax-deferred basis in an RRSP and you will pay taxes on the money when your withdraw it. However, if all goes well, retirement is a long way away and your money will grow into a giant pile. While you won’t be happy to pay taxes, regard that tax debt as evidence that you’re not going to be poor in your retirement. Poor people don’t pay taxes. You don’t want to be poor in your retirement.

I digress. Retirement is coming, one way or another. If you’re procrastinating about opening and/or funding your RRSP, then stop! Today’s technology means you can open and fund your RRSP from your hand-computer. You no longer need to go to a branch or talk to a human to complete these functions.

Time waits for no one. Take the steps you need to take so that you can put as much as you possibly can into your RRSP. This is a fundament step that you need to take to better your chances of having a financially comfortable dotage and being able to handle whatever financial challenges come your way when you and your income part ways.

Learn from Others!

If I can impart one nugget of wisdom to you today, it is this. You need not make every mistake yourself in order to learn a lesson. You’re always free to learn from others. I’m not promising that you’ll avoid making your own mistakes – that’s utterly impossible. What I am promising is that some of the biggest mistakes can be avoided if you’re willing to pay attention and think about the choices made by the people in your life.

These people won’t all be your family & friends – although it’s important to pay attention to the consequences of their choices too. Sometimes, the people who can teach you important lessons are only in your life for a few minutes.

When I was in high school, I had a part-time job as a cashier in a grocery store. Living at home, I had the luxury of having all of my paycheque go towards having fun with my friends since my parents paid for my shelter, my food, and the other important stuff. I was a very fortunate kid!

Anyway, two of my customers made indelible memories on me. One customer was an elderly lady who came through my till. I don’t recall how the topic of money came up but she very specifically told me to start saving for my retirement. I was a 16 or 17 years old at the time, but her words stuck with me. The second customer was also an elderly lady. I remember watching her compare two cans of cat food, and she was teary-eyed. When she came through my till, she confessed to me that she stocked up on cat food when it went on sale because she ate it herself. At the time, each can cost $0.59. She was tearful because the price had gone up from the last time she’d shopped.

Like my parents & teachers before them, these women provided me with a very important opportunity to learn from others. In their respective cases, the lesson was about money and retirement.

Those two anonymous customers forever changed my perspective on saving money for my future. Here were two seniors, who had very different options at the grocery store. I don’t know their back-stories. I can’t give you any details about their lives. Again, I was a teenager in a cashier’s uniform who rang through and bagged their orders before wishing them a nice day.

Yet, each of them taught me a valuable lesson her own way. From that day forward, I knew down to the marrow of my bones that I had to save a lot of money for my retirement.

When I was in my 20s, I worked part-time in a bank while going to school. One Saturday, a customer came in to pay $20,000 (maybe $25,000?) towards his mortgage. Those kinds of transactions were beyond my skillset as a customer service rep so the loans officer had to process it. After the customer left, I asked the loans officer why the customer had done that. The loans officer took the time to explain to me how the customer’s lump sum payment would knock years of payments and thousand of dollars of interest off his mortgage debt. That was the first time anyone had ever explained anything about mortgages to me.

Once again, I tucked that knowledge away for the future. I promised myself that, once I got a mortgage, I would pay it off as fast as possible by using these magical “prepayment options” that the loans officer had taught me.

Now, I still made mistakes. I didn’t learn about RRSPs until I was 21. So even though, I’d been working part-time since the age of 16 and saving $50 every two weeks in my savings account, I delayed starting my retirement savings program by 5 years. My parents ensured that I filed a tax return each year, so my RRSP room was accumulating every year. I could’ve made a contribution sooner but, alas, I did not.

So what happened at age 21? That’s easy. I read the book The Wealthy Barber by David Chilton. That book changed my life! In addition to starting my RRSP, I began to read more books about personal finance. When I graduated from school and started my career, I had a firmer foundation than I otherwise would have had. Though not perfect, I had a plan for my money.

Due to my choice to learn from others, I started contributing to my retirement accounts at age 21. I forced myself to start an automatic savings program at age 16. I’ve continued to live below my means. This choice has allowed me to always have money for investing. I chose to learn from others and I’ve avoided some of the very worst mistakes that I could have made with my finances.

Again, you need not make every mistake yourself. You have the option to learn from others. Use it!

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Weekly Tip: Set up an automatic savings plan. Part of your paycheque needs to be invested every time you are paid.

Dollar Cost Averaging is a Great Tool

As the warm days of spring roll in and push harsh memories of winter to the recesses of your memories, you may find yourself enjoying the sunshine and asking yourself: What is exactly is dollar-cost averaging?

I’m here to tell you that DCA can be a powerful tool for investors.

In a nutshell, dollar-cost averaging is a method for systematically investing your money. Investors who use DCS invest the same amount of money into an investment on a regular schedule. That schedule can be whatever the investor choose – weekly, monthly, quarterly, annually, or any other increment. The purchase of the underlying asset occurs regardless of the asset’s price.

There are a few of good reasons to use this investment methodology.

Dollar Cost Averaging or Lump-Sum Investing?

Firstly, the DCA strategy facilitates quicker investment in the stock market. Investors can align their investments with their paycheques. Since one my guiding financial mantras is spend-some-save-some, I make sure that a part of my paycheque is promptly & automatically re-directed to my investment portfolio.

There’s a school of thought which says that lump-sum investing is better than DCA because the entire value of the lump-sum amount is put to work in the stock market all at once. If your plan is to invest a large amount in the market, the proponents of lump-sum investing recommend that you invest the entire amount at once. Check out this article from the wise fellow at www.fourpillarfreedom.com for a good discussion of the benefits and drawbacks of the two investment methods.

Theoretically, I have no quarrel with the lump-sum investment style. However, the practical reality of my life is that I don’t have large lump-sums of money lying around. I invest when I get paid because that’s when I have the money available. The money is deposited into my chequing account, then it’s shunted to my investment account, where it sits until it’s invested. For most people without large chunks of money at their disposal, DCA is a better option – in my opinion – because they can invest when they’re paid.

No Need to Time the Market

Secondly, DCA eliminates that temptation to try and “time the market.” Investors who time the market are trying to buy an investment at its very lowest price. Perhaps you’ve heard recent chatter in the system from economists about the impending recession?

What you will never hear from any of those experts is the exact date on which the recession will start. And absolutely none of them will tell you date on which the stock market will be at its very lowest point. People lucky enough to buy at the lowest point will have the best investment returns when the market recovers. Market-timers are always trying to pick the very best time to invest.

Like all investors, market-timers are trying to maximize the profits from their stock market investments. Unlike market-timers, investors following the DCA-method simply invest their money on a consistent basis. They do not bother themselves with trying to buy at the very lowest price. They’re not concerned with the very best returns. They understand that time in the market is more important that timing the market.

Automation Pairs Beautifully with Dollar Cost Averaging Investing Method

Thirdly, the power of automation complements the DCA investment strategy very nicely. If you intend to invest in the stock market, then automatically transferring money from your chequing account to your brokerage account is an excellent strategy.

Let’s say you decided to invest on the 15th of each month. Your automatic transfer will ensure that a chunk of money is in your brokerage account for the purchase. On the 15th of the month, you’ll buy as much of the asset as your funds will allow regardless of the asset’s price. Then you won’t think about investing again until the 15th of the following month. Maybe you want to invest quarterly? That’s fine too. Put the power of automation to work! Gather money in your investment account until it’s time to buy some assets. Never forget the DCA can’t work for you unless you’ve set aside some savings.

This is how I invest. Every month, I invest money into my dividend-paying investments. I don’t follow the price of my exchange-traded funds from one day to the next. Instead, I buy as many units as I can when it’s time to buy. Then I don’t think about my investments again until the dividends roll in.

Easy-peasy, lemon-squeezy – rinse & repeat!

I’ve been using the DCA method to invest my money since 2011. I wasn’t interested in learning to be a wizard at picking stocks. The DCA method was easy to implement and even easier to understand. Much like every other investment method, it’s not perfect and it’s not suitable to for everyone. However, it works for me. I’m confident in this method and I’ll continue to use it until something better comes along.

RRSP Season

It’s Registered Retirement Savings Plan season! From now until the last day of February, there will many advertisements all over the place exhorting you to make a contribution to your RRSP.

If you need more detailed information about the rules, then I would suggest that you visit the website for the Canada Revenue Agency. Alternatively, you can talk to your accountant or a financial advisor. This article does not in any way, shape or form constitute comprehensive accounting or legal advice about RRSPs. I am not a professional nor am I giving you any kind of investing advice. This post is a starting point for you to make inquiries, learn the basics, and take responsibility for your future by determining how to use RRSPs to your best advantage.

For my part, I really like RRSPs. I’ve been contributing to mine since I was 21 years old. Every year, I get a tax refund which is promptly re-invested for retirement or put towards an annual vacation. I’m very diligent about automatic transfers to my investment portfolio so I’m quite comfortable with spending my RRSP-generated tax refund on whatever my heart desires.

RRSPs offer tax-deferred growth. You can pick almost any kind of investment to put under the tax-deferred umbrella. On top of that, you might even qualify for a tax refund if you make a contribution. If you’re in a higher tax bracket when you put money in than when you take it out, you’ve saved money on both sides of the transaction.

Remember – it’s tax-deferred savings, not tax-free savings. If you contribute when you’re in the 33% tax bracket, then your tax refund is based on that tax bracket. If you’re in a lower tax bracket when you take the money out, say the 26% tax bracket for instance, then you’ll pay tax on that RRSP withdrawal at 26%. This means you’ll be 7% to the good. Woohoo!

In my humble opinion, RRSPs have many commendable benefits.

However, not every product is perfect. RRSP contribution room can be lost if you make a contribution and then withdraw the money outside of two very specific RRSP programs. Those programs are the Lifelong Learners Plan or the HomeBuyer’s Plan. In short, if you contribute $1000 to your RRSP and then withdraw that money outside of the aforementioned programs, then you cannot put that money back into your RRSP in the future. Unlike the Tax Free Savings Account, which allows for contribution room to be re-captured if a withdrawal is made, your RRSP contribution room is gone forever once you withdraw your money.

Another associated drawback to RRSPs, in certain circumstances, is the creation of a nemesis commonly known as D-E-B-T.

“How can an RRSP result in debt?” you ask.

It’s quite simple. At this time of year, banks love to give people RRSP loans. Customers borrow money, contribute to their RRSP, and then they’re supposed to use the tax refund to pay down the RRSP loan. Whether the tax refund is actually applied to the outstanding balance on the RRSP loan is anyone’s guess. The tax refund goes straight to the borrower who took out the loan and it can be used however the borrower wants it to be used. Concert tickets? Holiday? Extra mortgage payment? Cigarettes? The choice is limited only by the borrower’s imagination and common sense. There’s no requirement for the tax refund to pay down the RRSP loan.

In my humble opinion, failing to pay down the loan with the tax refund is most likely a stupid move because do you know what else belongs to the borrower? The loan payments! If the tax refund is spent on something other than the RRSP loan, the loan payments still have to be made because the borrower put himself into debt by taking out the loan in the first place!

Even if the tax refund is applied towards the RRSP loan, trust me when I say that the refund won’t be enough to cover the principal of the loan which means that the borrower is on the hook for the remaining balance of the loan.

Keep in mind that the banks aren’t lending you money interest-free. They might defer the interest on the first 90-days of the loan, in the expectation that you’ll apply any tax refund towards the debt, but don’t hold your breath. Way back in the Palaeolithic period when I worked for a financial institution, this is what my overlords did for the customers. I have no idea if this is still the practice. However, if you can’t repay the loan in full within the grace period, then you will be paying interest on your RRSP loan until it’s completely repaid.

The other big drawback to the RRSP loan is that it, more often than not, requires more RRSP loans in the future if a person is intent on funding their RRSP each year. A cycle of debt is created – this is bad. See, if you’re required to make loan payments on this year’s loan, then you’re most likely not setting money aside for next year’s RRSP contribution. If you had set aside the money in the first place, then there would not have been any reason for you to have taken out an RRSP loan. Following this logic, when next year’s RRSP season rolls around, then you’ll be more inclined to take out another loan to make your next contribution.

This is an ass-backwards way to set aside money for the future. Yes – make the RRSP contribution. No – do not go into debt to do it!

“So what’s your bright idea, Blue Lobster?” you ask.

It’s simple. Go to any bank’s RRSP loan calculator and enter your numbers. The calculator will spit out a loan payment amount. I want you to set up a transfer from your bank account to your RRSP in the amount of the loan payment. Maybe the calculator spits out a payment amount of $500/mth. If your budget can accommodate this number, great – contribute $500 to your RRSP every month like clockwork. Maybe your budget can only tolerate a monthly hit of $350. That’s fine too – you’ll contribute $350 to your RRSP each month.

The point is that instead of paying money and interest to the bank, I want you to contribute that money to your RRSP. If you were willing to pay the bank some interest for the privilege of borrowing money, then I see no reason why you won’t make interest-free payments to yourself.

Either way, you’ll be setting aside money for your future. Why not do so without going into debt?