Most investors are interested in a definitive answer to question of when is the best time to invest in the stock market. And for good reason. After all, no one – and I mean no one – ever wants to lose money. We work very hard for our paycheques. It stands to reason that you would want to buy at the very best time in order to ensure that your investment realizes the maximum return.
For my part, I’ve been investing in the stock market since I was 21. My method isn’t perfect, and I’m sure that there are other ways to do things. However, I’m going to share my 3-question strategy with you and let you decide for yourself if it will work.
Question 1 – Is the stock market heading down or dropping?
If the answer is yes, then I invest.
Here’s my reasoning. When the stock market is dropping, that means stocks are on sale. My exchange-traded funds are comprised of stocks, so my the price of each unit in my ETF is lower too. In other words, I can buy more units in my ETFs when the market is down than I can when the stock market is up.
It’s akin when my favourite coffee is on sale at the grocery store for $4.99 instead of its regular price of $8.49. I stock up when the price is lower because I know the price is going to go back up! I need my coffee and it’s best to buy it a lower price.
The same principle can be applied to investing in the stock market. I need the capital gains and dividends that my investments generate each year. Those returns are consistently re-invested for compound growth. When I retire, my portfolio will continue to generate capital gains and dividends. At that point, I can stop re-investing them and use the money to fund my retirement.
To re-cap, if the stock market is down, I invest and take advantage of the sale on stocks.
Question 2 – Is the stock market going up?
If the answer is yes, then I invest.
Let me explain why. Bear markets are when stock markets are going down. Bull markets are when stock markets are going up. If we’re entering a bull market, that means the value of my ETFs unit will be going up and it also means that the value of my overall portfolio is going up. Companies within my ETFs might decide to increase their dividend and capital gain payments, which means my ETFs will pay me more money each month.
In order for me to benefit from those increased dividend and capital gain payments, I will need to own as many units as I can in my ETFs. One of the only ways to own more is to buy more. The other way to own more is allow my dividend re-investment plan to buy more units each month. However, I think you’ll agree that buying more with my monthly contribution + relying on the DRIP-purchase means that I’ll acquire more units more quickly than by relying on the DRIP-purchase alone.
So when the market is on its way up, I want to invest so that the value of my portfolio also benefits from the increase in the stock market value.
Question 3 – Is the market going to go up or is it going to go down?
This is just a trick question. Whether the answer is “yes” or “no”, I invest.
See, I’m not a professional stock trader. I don’t spend my days staring at the stock market screens or doing in-depth stock analysis. I’m just a Blue Lobster who likes spending time in my flower garden, cooking tasty things, playing with my littlest family members, going to theatre & dinner with friends, traveling at home and abroad, reading good books, and getting enough sleep.
I have no inclination to learn about stock market fluctuations, nor to track them day-to-day. I would rather invest monthly into an equity-based, broadly diversified ETF and let time do the rest. (For the record, I still have my dividend ETFs, but I’ve been investing my monthly contributions into VXC since October of 2020.)
My strategy for finding the best time to invest in the stock market is very, very simple. I invest in the stock market every 4 weeks, which works out to 13 transactions in a year. My next step is not sell what I buy. It’s what’s called the buy-and-hold strategy. I buy – I hold – I re-invest – I repeat. This is how my strategy has resulted in very nice, very passive cash-flow that’s equivalent to an entry-level, full-time job. My dividend ETFs continue to pay me a 4-figure amount every single month, and that amount is continuously increasing. My equity-based ETF pays me a 4-figure amount each quarter. All of my ETFs pay me capital gains at the end of the year.
The way I see it, the best time to invest in the stock market is when I have the money in my bank account to do so. Up, down, or sideways – my portfolio is paying me cold, hard cash on a regular basis. When I automatically re-invest that cash and add it to my monthly purchases, I’m effectively giving myself a licence to print money. Each month, I earn a few more dollars in dividends than I earned the month before. It’s a wonderfully passive way to grow my portfolio, without having to worry about picking the “best time to invest”.
There You Have It
This is my 3-step strategy for picking the best time to invest in the stock market. Your mileage may vary. I’m humble enough to admit that there may be better ways than mine to decide when to invest. What I can tell you from personal experience is that my method works. I’m a self-taught amateur investor who has managed to create a portfolio that will comfortably support Future Blue Lobster. I continue to read and learn. Some tips I like. Some, I don’t. The one constant theme in everything that I learn about investing is that you have to invest your money. It’s the absolutely most important step you simply must make to successfully grow your investments.
When someone asks if this is best time to invest in the stock market, the answer is “Yes!”