Category: Single Money

Spending Season is Back!

If my various timelines are to be believed, Black Friday is officially next week.

Retailers are running their marketing departments ragged, now that spending season is back. They want you online and in stores, wallets open! You are the prey and their inventory is the bait. They want your money and they want it bad. The question you have to ask yourself is: do you want your money more than they do?

You’ll note that there won’t be any Black Friday sales on your rent/mortgage, your transportation costs, your utilities, your credit card bills, or your other debts. Nope! Those expenses are fixed, and no one’s giving you a break on those.

However, the sales will be on the want-to-have’s, the nice-to-have’s, the things you think you need to Keep Up With the Joneses! And I’m not claiming to be a saint in this arena. For the past 2 weeks, I’ve been debating whether to buy myself a Danish dough whisk. I’d never heard of it until I saw it being used by someone on YouTube. I own a stand mixer, a hand mixer, several other whisks, and a dozen forks. On a scale of 1 to 10, my need for a Danish dough whisk falls at -2. Yet… if I get a good enough Black Friday “deal”, I just might buy myself one.

And the retailers are collectively betting that enough of us consumers will go wild next Friday because everything will be on sale, so why not?

It’s your money so you do whatever you think will make you happiest. I’m not here to stop you from spending your money. You earned it so you get to decide where it goes.

What I am going to do is ask you if you’ve really thought about why you’ll be spending money next Friday. Is it because you’ve waited all year and this is your treat to yourself? Maybe you’ve priced out everything for those one your Christmas list, the prices really will be cheaper next Friday, and you’ll save money? Or is it that shopping on Black Friday is a family-and-friends tradition that you missed out on in 2020 due to COVID-19? Could it be that you’re one of the very luck ones for whom money is no object so you’re free to spend with abandon?

In you’re inclined to start shopping, you should ask yourself if the shopping gets your closer to or further from your long-term financial goals. Will shopping next week help you make your dreams come true? You work so hard for your money that it would be a shame for you to fritter it away on stuff. Do not spend just for spending’s sake.

Way back in pre-pandemic times, the last 5 weeks of the year were a flurry of spending. There may have been travel, whether by plane, bus, car or train. Nearly always, there was entertaining – hosting parties or attending them. Delicious holiday food was everywhere! And the opportunities to shop were endless. After all, Black Friday was quickly followed by Cyber Monday – another day devoted to plucking the dollars from your wallet.

I anticipate that the last few weeks of 2021 are going to more closely resemble life before COVID-19. People want to get back to normal, and that’s understandable. This pandemic has been awful, for any number of reasons! We all want it in the rearview mirror as fast as possible. Personally, I don’t think it’s wise to revive bad spending habits that may have been curtailed in 2020.

Yet, I’m going to urge you to consider exercising a bit more restraint in respect of your spending this year. Do you really need to derail your long-term financial goals to show love to your family and friends? Might there be a way to enjoy the holidays without spending a ton of money? Will the few moments of novelty be worth the credit card bills that will inevitably arrive?

Spending season is back, but you need not be its victim. Determine how much you have to spend. Make a list of where you want to spend your money. Stick to you list. Enjoy your time with family and friends, but don’t undermine your life’s dreams to do so.

Another Little Criticism

Learning about personal finance and investing has been a hobby of mine for the better part of 30 years… wow – that’s a long time! No wonder I make those odd noises when I get up from the couch…

Anyway, one of the first books that set me on my successful path was The Total Money Makeover by Dave Ramsey. I loved this book! I was in undergrad when I read it, and I promised myself that I would follow its tenets once I had graduated and was earning real money.

I’m not sad to say that this is one promise to myself that I’m glad I broke. See, while I still think that the debt snowball is a brilliant strategy for getting out of debt, I’m not so sure about the other steps.

In particular, I take strong issue with the step about only investing 15% of your income after you’ve gotten yourself out of debt.

What’s wrong with 15%?

On the fact of it, saving 15% is a great goal to strive for. My question for other personal financial afficianados is why stop at 15%? If you can comfortably save 20% or 30%, or even 50%, then why not do so?

See, somewhere along the line, I discovered FIRE. It’s an acronym for Financial Independence, Retire Early. Thanks to the vastness that is the Internet, I went deep down the rabbit hole of FIRE. I learned about people who saved 70% of what they earned, who’d lived on $7,000 for an entire year, who’d retired in their 30s! Eventually, I discovered Mr. Money Mustache – a fellow Canadian, whose face-punch imagery caught my attention from the word go.

The FIRE community is varied, like any other community. However, the one thing that they do seem to share is the belief that you need to save more than 15% to become financially independent anytime soon. There’s even this handy-dandy retirement calculator floating out in the world. (Plug in your own numbers – see if you like the answer!)

FIRE and Dave Ramsey seemed to have a lot in common. Both financial perspectives eschewed debt. They both emphasized having an emergency fund and saving for retirement. There are even many in the FIRE community who think Dave Ramsey is great, and happily pay homage to him.

Yet Dave Ramsey… is remarkably quiet on his thoughts about the FIRE movement.

Why is that?

Look. I can’t speak for Dave Ramsey or his organization. Maybe he’s a huge fan of FIRE, but it’s not part of his company’s mission statement. Or maybe he hasn’t heard of FIRE yet. There are a million reasons why he sticks to advising people to only save 15% of their after-tax income.

My theory is that FIRE is an anathema to employers, and Dave Ramsey is a businessperson who needs employees to work for him. As an employer, it makes no sense to encourage the pool of talent from which one draws to become financially independent. Employers have the advantage when employees are dependent on a paycheque. I think that this was most beautifully illustrated in the blog post of other fellow Canadians over at Millennial Revolution.

Allow me to be clear. I’m not for one minute suggesting that Dave Ramsey speaks for all employers. Of course, he doesn’t!

What I am saying is that it would not be in Dave’ Ramsey’s best interest as an employer to encourage the pool of potential employees to strive for financial independence. Think about it. Being FI gives jobs candidates more negotiating power since they don’t need the job to survive. The beauty of the FIRE philosophy is that it gives people choices, including the choice to work for personal satisfaction without consideration of the paycheque. After all, just because one is FI does not meant that one has to RE. If your job brings you joy and you’re also FI, then your are truly and wonderfully blessed. No need to retire early if you don’t want to.

Think about how terrifying that must be for an employer. If money is the primary tool to control the workforce, then what weapon is left when money is not effective? A financially independent pool of employees means the employers have to find another tactic to persuade people to work for them.

In my very humble opinion, 15% isn’t enough.

If you’ve paid off your debts and your budget has breathing room again, I don’t see why you should be implicitly encouraged to spend 85% of your money. Spending at that rate keeps you tethered to your paycheque longer than you may like.

Until recently, I didn’t really consider why Dave Ramsey doesn’t encourage people to pursue financial independence. Yes – some people won’t be able to save more than 15% of their income, even if they’re out of debt. I get that. If you don’t have it, then you can’t save it. However, those aren’t the only people who listen to him.

My question is more about why those who can save more are not being encouraged to do so.

Again, the only theory that makes sense to me is that he doesn’t want to use his platform to encourage financial independence. I find it odd. Firstly, I don’t believe that everyone who calls his show for help loves their job so much that they want to stay for as long as possible. Secondly, one of the very best things that money buys is freedom from doing what you don’t want to do. Thirdly, financial independence doesn’t mean that people become lazy and idle. Instead, it gives them the time to work on what truly makes them happy.

Currently, I believe the following. Pursuing FIRE status will always be an employee-driven social movement. Given its nature, it has to be. After all, as a group, employers cannot maintain their vice-like grasp on power where there is a financial balance in the employment relationship. When employees have the ability to walk away without negative financial consequences, employers run the real risk of losing employees’ labour. A vision remains a vision unless there are minds and bodies that can bring it to life.

The concept of financially independent employees is adverse to the employer’s interests. It’s hardly surprising that employers are not advocating that their employees put some of their focus on saving and investing.

Getting back to Dave Ramsey. His book was written long before the FIRE movement hit the mainstream. I do not believe that he suggested a 15% savings rate in an attempt to maintain the imbalance of power between employers and employees. That’s a pretty broad stroke, and it’s not one I’m intending to make.

What I am willing to say is that the practical effect of his advice to only save & invest 15% works to give employers the upper hand. I’ve had many good jobs in my lifetime, yet none of my employers has encouraged me to save and invest for my future. There’s never been any kind of nudge towards financial independence.

Think long and hard.

The sooner you invest your money, the sooner you can hit the target of being financially independent. There may come a day when you no longer love your job, for whatever reason. When that day comes, you’re going to need to have money in place to pay for those pesky expenses of living like food, shelter, clothing, etc…

I’m not telling you to not follow the Baby Steps. What I am telling you is to think about their practical effect on your personal finances. Take what works… leave the rest.

Are you doing what you want with your money?

Two thirds of 2021 are in the rearview mirror. You should probably spend a few minutes figuring out if you’re doing what you want with your money.

In other words, is your money moving you closer to or further from your life’s goals?

Maybe dealing with your money is just one-more-thing, and you’re dealing with enough. I get it, really! The pandemic is lasting way longer than we’d expected. The climate change consequences are no longer something to worry about later. The impacts are being seen and felt right now, every single day, all over the world. There’s a lot going on and it’s not all good, so that might make it harder to focus on mastering money.

Be that as it may, there have always been lots of significant events going on in the world. Gues what? There always will be. However, while we’re striving to make the world a better place, you still need to put your money to work. The state of the world doesn’t absolve you of the responsibility you have to Future You.

There is a straight-forward way for amateur investors such as ourselves to invest. It’s our best bet to improve the odds that we’ll be able to live comfortably when we’re no longer sending our bodies and minds to work every day.

Allow me to share my secret with you, again. Put your money on auto-pilot! You’ve got enough to worry about and investing money for your future need not be on that list. Set it up once then let the magic of computers do the rest.

  1. Set up an automatic transfer of a set amount of money from your chequing account to your emergency fund.
  2. Set up a second automatic transfer to your investment account. This can also be your retirement account.
  3. Buy units in equity-based exchange traded funds or index funds with management expense ratios below 0.25%.
  4. Don’t withdraw money from your investment account.
  5. Save. Invest. Learn. Repeat.
  6. Live on whatever’s leftover after these transfers have gone through.

Doing these few things will save your bacon when the time comes. You might feel that you want to spend all of your money right now. After all, tomorrow is promised to no one and you only live once, right? There’s a certain seductive allure to that perspective. Resist! You’re going to need money for all of the tomorrow’s headed your way. You might not know how many of them you’ll get, but the odds are very good that you’re going to need money for most of them.

The bottom line is that you should be doing what you want with your money. If you’re not, figure out why and do what needs to be done to change that situation.

Finding the Balance

One of the biggest downfalls of the online personal finance community is the lack of balance. I suppose that’s partly due to the fact that we’re all competing for eyeballs on the screen, and extreme headlines garner more attention. It’s unfortunate though. I think more people would be willing to consider pursuing FIRE if they understood that an important element is finding the balance.

God bless him, but Jacob Fisker’s desire to live on $7,000 per year is not one that holds any appeal to me. That level of frugality makes me a little ill. Even the idea of being “face-punched” – popularized by a grand-daddy of FIRE, Mr. Money Mustache – isn’t particularly enticing. Fret not – I do understand the phrase is a metaphor. It’s meant to remind you that stupid decisions with money are just as painful as being hit in the face.

To each their own, right?

Well… maybe. Personally, I think that pursuing financial independence would benefit many people. In a society that abhors unionized labor, pursuing financial independence is the only way for employees to gain some measure of power in the workforce. At the end of the day, business owners need employees. It’s a power-dynamic that is ripe for abuse and exploitation when one party desperately needs money. You – or any employee – can minimize the risk of experiencing such exploitation by pursuing financial independence. When you have the financial resources to walk away from your job, you’re tilting the power dynamic back in your favour. I think that this is a good thing.

At a bare minimum, financial independence gives you choices. In our capitalistic society, financial independence is as much a status symbol as anything else. It’s a signal that someone has enough resources to spend their time how they wish. And isn’t that one of the biggest draws of being rich? Not having to do what someone else tells us to do?

The reality for all of us is this. We each only get one life and finding the balance is key to living a good one. That’s why it’s important to spend some of your money today.

Look, I know that I spend a lot of time telling you to save and invest your money for the long-term. There’s no denying that I think you owe it to Future You to create a sizeable investment portfolio. At the same time, I don’t ascribe to the belief that investing money should be a goal unto itself. Money is pointless if you’re not going to spend it.

Furthermore, no one is promised tomorrow. You have no guarantee that you will be alive in 5-10-25 years to enjoy all the money that you accumulate in the interim. By finding the balance, you’ll be able to spend some of your dollars today on the things that make you smile.

Of course, you should always invest part of your paycheque for the future. I’ll never change my mind about that. What I also want you to do is shave a little bit from each paycheque to spend today. Make no mistake! I don’t want you spending money needlessly. Rather, I’m suggesting that you spend on things that truly make you happy.

Consider taking the advice of Ramit Sethi – ruthlessly cull expenses from your life that don’t bring you joy and spend freely on the ones that do. To me, finding the balance means diligently adhering to my mother’s advice to spend some, save some.

It’s taken me a long time to learn that there has to be a balance. Like I mentioned above, each of us gets one life. We owe it to ourselves to make it as good as we possibly can. It’s important to find ways to enjoy the journey while planning for the future.

The balance is different for each of us. What brings you joy might generate indifference in someone else. No matter. Do what you must to find the balance in your own life.

*** My comments are not meant for those living on low incomes. Obviously, those on low incomes are doing what they can to survive. I don’t have the answer to the plight of the working poor. Telling low income workers to simply “earn more money” isn’t effective. It’s insulting. If they could, they would.

Unexpected Expenses & the Beauty of Savings

This week, I celebrated my birthday.

Sadly, no one told my beloved SUV. Instead, I took my vehicle to my trusted mechanic because I needed an oil change and thought that changing an air filter might assist with a little acceleration problem I’d been experiencing. Instead, my SUV walloped me with a $2,900 estimate!

That’s not an inconsiderable amount for a car repair. It turns out that my clutch is slipping. That’s the mechanic’s lingo for my clutch is not working properly and I can’t safely drive my car until this extremely vital part is replaced. Yes – I drive a vehicle with a manual transmission. Unfortunately, a clutch is only good for about 150,000kms.

So I had a decision to make. My SUV is 13 years old. Yet it only has 137,000kms on it, which means there’s 70,000-100,000kms left on the engine. I’ve been with my mechanic for 17 years and I trust him, which means I believed him when he told me that the major components of my SUV are still in good shape. The tires are good – the brakes are fine – everything else on my car is fantastic. Barring a collision, I should be able to drive my car for another 5-7 years. My plan had been to replace my car in 4.5 years.

Still, a $2,900 repair bill is not a drop in the bucket. Despite its low mileage, the Kelley Blue Book value for my SUV is between $5900 – $6100. And a quick review of Auto Trader disclosed that a similarly aged SUV with slightly lower mileage than mine was listed at a price of $7,500. However, I couldn’t in good conscious sell my SUV without disclosing that it needs close to $3,000 of repairs… so no way am I getting $7,500 for this vehicle.

And if I were to sell, then I’d have to buy… I’m not a fan of car shopping. Besides, did I mention that I love my SUV? I’ve kept it for 13 years because it’s a great little vehicle.

So, on one of my favorite days of the year, I had a decision to make. Would I repair the SUV that I loved and drive it another 5 years? Or would I sell it at a discount, let someone else drive it for its remaining life, and proceed to buy something else?

After much deliberation and consultations with trusted friends, I decided to repair my SUV. I can continue to drive it for several more years. Clutches need to be replaced, so this rather large expense is not out of the ordinary.

Some reminded me that conventional wisdom is that a vehicle should be replaced when the repair is 50% or more of its value. On the numbers, my repair bill was just shy of 50% of my SUV’s value. Others reminded me of the global chip shortage, which means that there are fewer new cars available for purchase. Still others focused on the fact that I could drive my car for a few more years once this repair was made. One person reminded me that I “could afford” to buy a new vehicle, without compromising my long-term financial goals.

At the end of the day, I chose to repair my SUV. Why?

Mainly, I couldn’t get past the fact that any buyer would have to repair the clutch. The buyer would then benefit from the additional years of driving my SUV. Whether owned by me or someone else, my SUV needs a $2,900 repair in order to run. Why shouldn’t I be the person to benefit from the remaining years of life in my vehicle?

Besides, I abhor shopping for vehicles. There’s nothing on the road today that is an absolute must-have for me. As I mentioned above, I have loved my SUV from the minute I bought it 10+ years ago. I’m not yet ready to give it up.

With age comes wisdom.

Allow me to assure you of the following bit of financial wisdom. If you own anything with wheels or a motor, there will eventually be a big expensive repair. There is no telling when that day will come. You need to prepare for that day by having cash set aside in a savings account.

When I heard $2,900, I didn’t waste a second wondering how I would pay for the repair. Fortunately, I could jump right into the question of whether to keep or sell my vehicle. Thanks to years of funding my emergency fund and various sinking funds, I have the money on hand to pay for this expense. The only question I seriously pondered was whether I should.

Unexpected expenses are a fact of life. They can be financial zingers that throw your whole budget into disarray. They force you to re-prioritize how you allocate money and whether you allow yourself to go into debt. The first rule of handling unexpected expenses is to have savings. The second rule is to replenish those savings after you’ve used them.

Unless you already have one in place, set up an automatic transfer from your day-to-day chequing account to a savings account that is strictly dedicated to handling the unexpected. I would suggest $10 per day, which is $70 per week, or $3,650 per year. You know your budget better than I do, so maybe you can only do $5 per day ($1,825/yr) or maybe you’re fortunate enough to do $20 per day ($7,300/yr). The higher your per diem, the faster you build up your ability to handle life’s unexpected expenses. Pick a target amount for your savings account, then transfer your per diem amount into this account until that target is met.

The beauty of savings is this – they always curb the impact of unexpected expenses on the rest of your financial priorities. So while a $2,900 car repair bill was not on my birthday wish list, I’m fortunate to be able to take it in stride. Happy birthday to me!

There are no guarantees…

I want to talk about a 2-part interview with Reader B about how he and his wife earn $360,000 each year in dividends. If you’re interested in learning how Reader B accomplished this, please read both parts of his interview at over at the Tawcan website – part 1 is here and part 2 is here. If you’re seriously interested in dividend investing, spend some time on this website. It is one of the best places on the internet to learn about creating a cash flow stream from dividends.

Reader B doesn’t live off his dividends. He and his spouse retired in 2004, and they live off their pension income. They started investing 36 years ago, in 1985. As I understand the article, they eschewed RRSPs and invested solely in Canada. Their portfolio was worth just shy of $1,800,000 when they retired. And because they’ve allowed their dividends to compound since retirement in 2004, their portfolio is now worth over $9,500,000. (You’ll have to read through the interview and the comments on the second part to get the exact numbers.)

That’s pretty damn impressive… Between 2004 and 2021, this couple has increased the size of their portfolio by $8,000,000. Needless to say, this interview has given me some points to ponder. Namely, can I do the same thing?

I started my own dividend investment plan in 2011. Ten years later, I’m on the cusp of earning $30,000 per year in dividends. That’s a decent amount, but it’s not enough to afford me a very comfortable retirement. I’m not comparing myself to Reader B and his wife. Again, their portfolio has been around for 36 years – that’s 26 years longer than mine.

Like the Bs, I’m going to be living on a pension when I retire. That means that I have potential to leave my dividends alone to compound for another couple of decades. I too could see myself with a six-figure annual dividend payment if I don’t use any of my portfolio’s returns during the first chunk of my retirement.

Also like Reader B and Spouse, I don’t have any kids. There are no tuition bills, weddings (other than my own, which at this point is a statistical improbability), house down payments or significant graduation gifts to fund. My pension will be sufficient to keep me in the same lifestyle that I’m enjoying now. Spending the dividends each year will be an option, not a necessity.

The question I have to ask myself is…

… do I want to have a large annual dividend payment if I’m not going to spend it?

Don’t get me wrong! I am utterly fascinating by what the Bs have accomplished, and I will be re-reading their interview to learn more. My question for myself is what is the point of having that much money rolling in if it’s not to be spent at some point?

The 2-part interview was on the mechanics of this extremely successful dividend portfolio. There wasn’t a lot of philosophical discussion about the uses of money, or how the Bs intend to distribute their money once they’re gone. For my part, I think one of the best reasons to emulate the Bs’ strategy is to have funds on hand to pay for my nursing care if I live to be too old to care for myself. Even after inflation is factored in, I’m hoping that $360,000 per year is sufficient to hire a competent and kind nurse who’ll help me with the un-mentionable tasks that come with having an aged body.

Beyond my considerations of future nursing care, I’m at a bit of a loss to imagine how I would benefit from $360K each year if I wasn’t spending it. Again, the Reader B didn’t talk about his intentions for his money. He didn’t discuss how he and his wife feel about their passive income stream. For all I know, the Bs are planning to create a sustainable scholarship fund for their favorite post-secondary institution. Maybe their dividend portfolio will be left in a trust to fund animal sanctuaries. I really don’t know what their plans are, and it’s none of my business.

I’m just thinking about what I would do.

Like the title of this post say, there are no guarantees.

Some of you may remember that I’ve switched my investment plan. As of October 2020, all of my investing contributions have been going into VXC instead of into XDV and VDY. I’d been faithfully investing in my dividend ETFs since 2011. Again, that investment has resulted in a good-sized annual dividend payment. After the market rebounded in 2020 from the pandemic, I wanted to take advantage of the growth in equity. In hindsight, I made the right decision. My portfolio has more than recovered all that it had lost from February 2020 to March 2020.

Now that I’ve digested Reader B’s interview, I have to wonder if I made the right choice. According to his interview, the Bs never deviated from their dividend investing strategy. Did I make a mistake in October 2020? Should I have continued funnelling new money into my dividend ETFs? Should I go back to my former strategy? How will I know if I made the right choice?

There’s simply no way to know the answers to these questions in advance. I’m going to trust the choices I’ve made thus far and I’m going to stick to what’s been working for me. Fortunately, my decisions to date have not led me off course. Having confidence in my own choices doesn’t stop me from learning about the paths to financial success taken by others, assessing their methods, and considering whether to incorporate them into my own.

So I thank Reader B for sharing his story with the world. His decision to tell the world about his dividend investing strategy means that I have another example to ponder. And, even though there are no guarantees, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with considering different options!

Sequence of Return Risk

There’s a lot of jargon in the world of personal finance. The more terms you know, the more comfortable you’ll be when it comes to making decisions about your money. Today’s post is meant to be a short and sweet tutorial about the basics of Sequence of Return Risk.

A bear market is one where overall stock market returns are falling.

A bull market is one where overall stock market returns are rising.

This distinction is very important.

Retiring into a Bear Market

Let’s say you retire with $1,000,000. You plan to live on $40,000. So long as your portfolio is kicking off atleast 4%, then you’re golden for as long as you live. Hooray!

You retire. You smash your alarm clock. You wake up when you want with a smile on your face. The only fly in this ointment is that you’ve retired at the start of a bear market. The value of your portfolio drops 15%, which means your portfolio is now worth $850,000 (= $1,000,000 x [1-0.15]).

Your portfolio is still kicking off a return of 4%, but you’re not getting $40,000 per year anymore. With a portfolio of $850,000, you’re only getting $34,000 (=$850,000 x 4%). Where will the other $6,000 come from? Remember, you need $40,000 to fund each year of your retirement.

You’ll have to withdraw the extra $6K from your portfolio balance of $850,000, leaving you with $844,000 (= $850,000 – $6,000). That’s still a decent chunk of change, but eating into the principal had not been part of your retirement plan…

Year 2 of retirement isn’t exactly great either. The bear market is easing, but it’s still a factor. The value of your portfolio drops another 10%. (Yes, it’s possible for the stock market to drop two years in a row.) That $844,000 that you had is now down to $759,600 (= $844,00 x [1-0.10]). Yikes! That’s $240,400 less than what you started with when you first retired.

Yet you still need $40,000 per year to live on, and your portfolio is still kicking off 4%. Sadly, 4% of $759,600 is $30,384… which is $9,616 (= $40,000 – $30,384) short of your needed $40K. So where will that $9,616 come from? You’ll have to take it from your $759,600….dropping your portfolio balance back down to $749,984 (=$759,000 – $9,616). Not good!

Year 3 of retirement welcomes the return of a bull market, and the stock market goes up 7%. Hooray! Your $749,984 is now worth $802,483 (=$749,984 x 1.07). That’s still not enough to kick off $40,000. In fact, your portfolio will only earn you $32,099 (=$802,483 x 4%), which means taking a further $7,901 (= $40,000 – $32,099) from your portfolio.

Do you see the problem?

When you retire into a bear market, your retirement portfolio might not be sufficiently large to cover your anticipated expenses. You may be forced to withdraw money to cover your living expenses when the value of your portfolio has dropped!!! This is a very bad thing because it means that your money won’t be invested when the stock market invariably starts increasing again.

Retiring into a Bull Market

However, if you retire into a bull market, then things are considerably better. Starting with the same assumptions of a $1,000,000 portfolio, a 4% return, and annual expenses of $40K in retirement, check out what happens if the stock market goes up 7% in the first year.

Your portfolio is up to $1,070,000 (=$1,000,000 x 1.07). At 4%, that means your portfolio is kicking off $42,800 (=$1,070,000 x 4%). Yet, you don’t need more than $40,000, so you leave the $2800 invested. Now your porfolio is worth $1,072,800 (=$1,070,000 + $2,800).

In year 2, the market goes up another 15%. Your portfolio goes up to $1,233,720 (=$1,070,800 x 1.15). At 4% return, you’re receiving $49,349 (=$1,233,720 x 4%). Again, you take out the $40K that you need and you let the $9,349 continue to stay invested. Now, your portfolio is worth $1,243,069 (=$1,233,720 + $9,349).

Year 3 is another positive year, though not as positive as year 2. The stock market only produces an average return of 5%, generating $62,153 (= $1,243,069 x 1.05) for you. You don’t change your spending, $40K goes into your spending account and the remaining $22,153 stays invested. Now your portfolio is worth $1,265,222 (= $1,243,069 + $22,153).

See the difference? Retiring into a bull market means your portfolio will continue to grow, so long as you don’t spend every penny of your returns.

Protecting yourself from the sequence of return risk

Like I said at the start, this is just a short tutorial on the sequence of return risk. Other persons far wiser than I have spent way more time coming up with great strategies. One of the books that I would strongly suggest you read for a more in-depth analysis on this topic is Quit Like A Millionaire by Kristi Shen & Bryce Leung. Their book offers a brilliant strategy for avoiding the sequence of return risk – it’s called the Yield Shield and it’s awesome. Another great source of information about how to avoid sequence of return risk is this article from The Retirement Manifesto.

And if you really want to sink your teeth into this topic, check out Big Ern’s Safe Withdrawal Rate series at Early Retirement Now.

If you’re not able to avail yourself of the Yield Shield, then another way to make up for the shortfall between when you need and what your smaller portfolio can provide is to get a job. I’m not suggesting a return to full-time work, but maybe you’ll have to find a part-time job that generates $10,000 per year. A part-time income of $10,000 per year would definitely cover the shortfall in year 1, which means leaving your money invested so that it can grow when the stock market returns start becoming positive again.

And if you’re deadset against part-time work, then there’s always the option of cutting your expenses to live on whatever your portfolio generates. This isn’t the preferred option for a few reasons. First, it’s never fun to cut out the little extras that make life a bit more pleasant. Secondly, there’s only so much you can cut. Thirdly, there’s no room for surprise expenses like a new furnace in the dead of winter. While it’s not ideal, working a few hours a week might be a better financial alternative for you than cutting out expenses that make the non-working hours more comfortable.

So that’s my primer on the sequence of return risk. Retiring into a bear market is fraught with peril, but there are ways to minimize its negative impact on the sustainability your long-term retirement money. It’s best to retire into a bull market. Should you not be one of the people with an accurate crystal ball able to tell you what the future will bring, then I suggest that you read and learn more about how to ensure that your retirement portfolio lasts for as long as you do.

Super Powers

FU Money and being FI are super powers…

Dave from www.accidentalfire.com

I’ve written about FU Money before. It’s the money that you have set aside for those instances when you need to tell someone to “make love and go”. It’s not your emergency fund money. It’s not your retirement money. It’s not even your car replacement fund. Nope. Your FU Money consists of those funds set aside for giving you options when you don’t want to work anymore, when you just can’t handle another pointless meeting, nor one more inquiry from your micro-managing boss. It’s the money that will tide you over while you re-group and figure out the next step after you’ve left a situation that was driving you mad.

And long-time readers know that I encourage everyone to become FI, aka: financially independent. Being FI is great because it gives you even more options than FU money. Once your portfolio is kicking off enough capital gains & dividends to pay for your life as you’re currently living it, then you’re financially independent. And you want to know a secret? You don’t have to give up working just because you’re FI!

One of the options is to keep working, if you want to. You need not give up your employment just because your money is making more money for you. Once you’re FI, you no longer need to work but there’s also no need for you to quit your employment either. Again, for the cheap seats in the back, being financially independent gives you the option to work without needing the job. How cool is that?

I’d love to quit. As I’ve mentioned before, I have a great job. I work with very smart people on interesting problems that are mentally challenging. Before the pandemic, I travelled for work. My employer invests in training and I have opportunities to advance my career. I’m good at my job. There are many, many good things about my current position… Yet, it’s not what I want to do for the rest of my life. I want to quit.

So I’m working on developing my superpowers. Do I have enough FU money? Probably. Will I pull the trigger and use it? Probably not. Re-read my last paragraph. My position is pretty good so I don’t foresee a situation where I will be so incensed with my employer that I just walk out the door while giving someone the finger. Unless something changes drastically, I expect my departure to be mutual, respectful, and drama-free.

Still… I have my FU money in place, just in case I’m wrong.

I’ve spent the last 10 years working on developing the second super-power, i.e. becoming FI. It hasn’t always been easy and I’ve made my share of mistakes. However, I’ve learned from them and corrected them when needed. I’ve always believed that it’s okay to make a mistake. What’s not okay is making the same mistake more than once.

Do I still have learning to do? Of course I do! There’s this new thing called Bitcoin that everyone seems to be chattering about incessantly. I owe it to myself to figure out what that’s all about so that I can make an informed decision about whether to invest in it or not.

Despite my mistakes in investing over the years, I have to say that I’m far closer to being FI than I would have been had I not started. Investing money from every paycheque for the past 10 years has done wonders for getting me so much closer to my goal.

Maybe you wish you’d started 10 years ago too. It doesn’t matter. Start today. The time will pass anyway, so you might as well take the steps to build your own super powers. Don’t dwell on what you haven’t done yet. Make a plan to actively put a plan in motion to achieve your dreams. You get one life and you deserve to live the best life possible. If that means having a buffer between you and the Edge should you need to part company with your paycheque, then create that buffer. No one else is going to do it for you. And if you want to remove the golden handcuffs, then build a portfolio whose cash flow can replace your employment income. That way, if you decide to stay at your job, it’s because you want to be there. You won’t be shackled to the paycheque.

Super powers won’t solve all your problems. Life doesn’t work that way. What they will do is give you a financial cushion when you need one the most. They can alleviate the fear of not knowing how you’ll feed/shelter/clothe yourself without your employer’s money. The super powers will give you the confidence and comfort of knowing that you can survive even if you must part ways with your employer, for whatever reason.

Priorities Are Personal

Every day that you wake up offers you the chance to move closer to, or further from, your priorities. You can spend your life’s energy, time, and money in ways that are making your dreams come true. You can just as easily spend your resources making someone else’s dreams come true. One way or another, you will be spending our life doing something. It’s up to you to decide what that “something” is.

As the title of this post states, priorities are personal. There’s a very good chance that your priorities are not going to be the same as anyone else’s. Sure – there are general themes that apply to all of us. We all need food and shelter every day. Yet, some people will only eat organic while others will never learn to cook more than toast. Some people want a water view from their bedroom balcony, while others need easy access to the slopes and mountain trails in order to feel at peace.

The distinctions are in the details. And since this is a personal finance blog, I’m here to encourage you to spend your hard-earned dollars in ways that permit you to achieve your life’s priorities.

Most of the time, the things we want cost money. In the Before Times, I travelled every single year. In 2016, I had started travelling overseas. A big chunk of my annual spending was devoted to this priority – flights, hotels, food, souvenirs, excursions. It added up to $5,000 – $7,000 per year. Travel was one of my priorities so I was willing to give up other things. I ate breakfast at home instead of buying it at the coffee shop before work. I learned to cook more recipes in my own kitchen, instead of relying on the good folks of the restaurant industry. Spa treatments were curtailed. Concerts were foregone in favour of Spotify or CDs. Each of these littles choice allowed me to save between $100-$150 each week in order to fund my travel priority.

You can do the same thing.

List out everything that you want. Whether you cap the list at 10-20-30 things or experiences that you really want is entirely up to you. This is your list of priorities. Once you’ve completed the list, move to step two.

Put this list in order of importance. Is getting a pet more important to you than season’s tickets to a sporting event? Would you rather save for a down payment or go to a weekly happy hour? Does retirement matter more than upgrading your vehicle?

Once you have your priorities in order, you turn your attention to the money. How are you going to pay for all of your priorities?

Honestly? You can’t pay for everything at once. If you could, then there’d be no need to prioritize. You list is meant to help you choose where to allocate each dollar. As each priority is funded, the dollar can move to the next one.

For my part, my priorities are well-defined. Some of them will take a long time to pay for, but others can be funded in less than two years. Priority number one is paying for the annual expenses that will only stop when I do – property taxes and insurance premiums. I know in my heart of hearts that the day I don’t pay my insurance premiums is the day that my house burns down while my car is in the garage. I have an automatic savings plan in place so I can accumulate the money to pay these annual bills when they come due.

Retirement is priority number two. Sadly, I am not a member of the “I Love My Job” Club. My job is challenging, interesting, and well-compensated. I work with very smart people and am part of a well-functioning team. However, I’m not gleefully jumping out of bed every morning in order to do my job. I’m looking forward to retirement so I don’t have to do those parts of my job that I don’t enjoy.

As you may have surmised, travel is priority number three. In the Before Times, I’d be planning my next trip on the flight home. The world is a big place. I might not always have the physical ability to see it. Ideally, I will see as much of the world as I can while I still have the ability to walk, stand, sit, and maneuver without too much difficulty. However, we’re currently in pandemic times so travel is taking a back-burner.

Fixing up my house is priority number four. And by “fixing up”, I don’t mean replacing furnaces and water heaters. Those are things that fall under “maintenance/repair/replace”. No – I’m talking about landscaping projects. I’m taking about new carpet, new paint, new cabinetry. The stuff that has made HGTV so incredibly successful! There’s a good chance that I will be in my house for a very long time, so I want it to be comfortable and to my taste.

Priority number five…

Well, truth be told, there really isn’t one. Maybe replacing my SUV in the next 5 years? Whatever isn’t spent on priorities 1-4 sits in a slush fund, accumulating until such time as there’s something that I really and truly believe will make my happy.

It’s up to you to do the same with your money. From this day forward, think about your priorities before you spend your money. A simple way to do this is to set up automatic transfers to fund your priorities. Hive off part of your income into a savings account – for short term goals only – so that the money is there to pay for your priority. Long-term goals like retirement need to have their allocations invested in the stock market – RRSP and TFSA for registered monies and investment accounts for non-registered monies.