Tag: Investing

Power thru the volatility & stick to your knitting

There’s no doubt about it. We’re in a period of volatility in the stock market. For the first time, in a long time, there’s been a run of “down” days. The stock market has been in the red and the market has closed lower than the day before. I do not claim to be any kind of expert on such things, but even I can see that the value of my portfolio is dropping too. This is entirely due to the fact that I’m invested in the stock market.

So what’s my next move? What steps should I take to make my portfolio go up?

Short answer: it’s time for me to stick to my knitting!

I can’t do anything to move the stock market the way I want it to go, which is up. The factors I control are how much I contribute, how often, and into which investment. Everything else is out of my hands. Over the long term, the stock market goes up. This has been proven repeatedly in the past. I have no reason to think it won’t go up again in the future. So I’m going to power thru the volatility.

And you should power thru the volatility too.

I view what we’re experiencing now as a correction. It’s happened before, and it will happen again. Corrections are completely normal! Do the Talking Heads of economic media generate a lot of jibber-jabber about them? Yes, they do…. because that’s their job. The jibber-jabber results in viewers, which translate into ratings, which translate into money.

Pay them no mind. Stick to you knitting.

When the 2009 correction rolled around, I made one of my biggest ever investing mistakes. I stopped making regular contributions into the market. In other words, I halted my dollar-cost averaging system of investing. I froze like a deer in the headlights because I focused on the jibber-jabber. I stopped my contributions for 3 months. Yikes! Huge mistake! Doing so meant that I wasn’t investing at the bottom, when the market was at its cheapest. I waited until the recovery and then I re-started my investment system. This was one of the stupidest moves I have ever made, and I promised myself that I would never make that particular mistake again!

Learn from mistakes wherever you find them.

You need not make this mistake yourself. Don’t stop contributing to your investments just because we’re in a period of volatility. Trust in your plan. You’re investing for the long-term, remember?

There have been subsequent corrections, and I’m happy to say that I’ve kept my promise. No matter what, my automatic transfer funnels money from my chequing account to my investment account and I buy units in my ETFs on the appointed day. My investment strategy has remained consistent ever since 2009.

These past two weeks haven’t been fun. No one likes to see the value of their portfolio decrease, including me. I’ve decided to stop checking the value of my portfolio for a little while. Before this correction started, I would check the value each day and smile to myself. Lately, my smile’s been turned upside-down. I’ve chosen not to torment myself. My transfer will remain in place, and I will continue to invest in my selected ETFs. However, I’ll check my portfolio’s value less frequently.

This is the lesson I learned from the 2009 correction. The stock market will never go to 0. It will go up and down, but it will never go all the way down to 0. I’m investing for the long haul. Even after retirement, there’s a good chance I’ll be around for another 20-30 years. This means I still have decades of investment ahead of me. (Whether I’ll be investing as much during retirement as I do now remains to be determined.) There is no point in worrying about the day-to-day gyrations of the stock market when I’m still invested for the long-term.

Allow me to very clear on this next point – I am not an expert. My wisdom, such as it is, comes from years of personal experience. I cannot predict the future, and I don’t know your particular circumstances. I am not qualified by anyone to give you expert advice. What I say is based on what has worked for me & for those in my circle who discuss such things. I fully admit that my experience is not going to be the same as yours.

That said, I want you improve your odds of ensuring that Future You is financially secure. Continue to invest in the stock market. Take a long-term view. Keep atleast 60% of your portfolios in equities. Invest on a regular basis. Stick to your knitting and ignore the jibber-jabber. Save – invest – learn – repeat. Power thru the volatility and enjoy the rewards on the other side of this correction.

Is now a good time to invest in the stock market?

Yes.

Short though the answer may be, it is accurate. Today is the best time to invest in the stock market.

Since the start of 2022, my portfolio has seen a lot of volatility. My personal definition of volatility is that its value has moved between $7,000 and $15,000 in one day. Some days the swings are negative, and my portfolio value has dropped. Other days, the swings are positive and my portfolio has increased. Either way, I count it as volatility. During the Big Market Drop of 2020, my portfolio lost $247,000! It might have lost more, but I simply stopped checking it at that point.

Do I enjoy volatility? Not particularly, but it doesn’t bother me very much. I’m the same as most everyone who invests – I don’t want to lose money. No one wants to lose their investment! After all, we’ve worked incredibly hard to earn the money to invest in the first place and a loss means that all that hard work was in vain.

One of the secrets I’ve learned over my many years of investing is to never lock in your losses when the market is volatile. If you buy at $10/unit, and the price drops to $5/unit, then that’s a 50% loss. If you sell when the price is down, then you’ve locked in your loss – and that’s not a good thing. The key is to keep your money invested because the stock market’s trend over the long term is to go up.

Check out this image from personalfinanceclub.com which visually explains why stock market investors should ignore short-term volatility. It’s a picture of a person walking up the stairs while working a yo-yo. The yo-yo’s up and down movement represents the daily gyrations of the stock market. The stairs represent the long-term upward trend of the stock market.

If you stay invested for the long term, you will be financially rewarded. Your portfolio will be bigger than your initial investment. Yay for you!!!

Now, I have to caveat that last statement. This works for equity-based exchange traded funds and for equity-based mutual funds. If you decide to invest in a single stock, then you’d better have far more insight and wisdom than I do. You’ll do what you want, but I would suggest that you stay away from individual stock picking until you’re a sophisticated investor. It is between extremely hard and impossible to determine which stocks are the ones that will make you rich over the long-term. For my this very reason, I don’t invest in single stocks.

All of my money is invested in exchange-traded funds. ETFs are very diversified because they hold a basket of stocks that have done well over time. When one of those stocks starts doing poorly, it is removed from the basket and replaced with something else. When I invest in my ETFs, I don’t need to do the stock analysis to determine which stocks are good and which ones aren’t. That analysis is done for me. I can spend my precious time doing other things I enjoy. For example, last night I tried this absolutely delicious recipe for Thai Yellow Chicken Curry instead of poring over a prospectus. My portfolio continued to work in the background while I tried my hand at something new and tasty.

Money needs time to compound. The sooner compounding starts, the bigger your money will grow. Now is a great time to invest in the stock market! War breaking out? Check! Social unrest somewhere? Check! Inflation spiraling? Check! Devastating natural disaster? Check! There will always be some world event that makes the stock market volatile. That’s just how life goes with 8 billion people on the planet. Don’t let those extremely disturbing events stop you from investing in the stock market. Money that is not invested today never benefits from compound growth. You can’t go back 20 years and start your investment portfolio. You have today so start today. Once lost, time can never be recovered.

Do Future You a favor and start investing in the stock market via equity-based exchange traded funds. Start today. Set up an automatic transfer to your investment account so you’re investing on a regular basis. Personally, I invest every month. I know others who invest every 90 days. There are those who invest once a year. The key is that the investment gets made. Once you’ve started your investment journey, continue to learn about personal finance and investing. Start where you are and build from there because when you know better, you do better.

The Basics Never Change

No matter how you slice it, the basics don’t really change. This blog is about money, so I’ll stick to the financial basics.

  1. Live below your means so you have some money to save and invest.
  2. Invest your money so that it grows over time.
  3. Go back to step one and repeat.

Everything else is about the details.

  • Where should the money be invested?
  • How low should the management expense ratio be?
  • Are mutual funds better than index funds?
  • Should one invest in index funds or exchange traded funds?
  • Is real estate better than the stock market for investment returns?

Start where you are, and go from there. One of the best tools I’ve found for managing my own money is a spreadsheet. Thanks to Numbers, I’ve been tracking my expenditures for the past few years. I could’ve used an app on my phone, but I prefer to personalize the spreadsheet to my own requirements. An app has a built-in structure that may not be suitable for me.

By tracking my expenses, I’ve been able to see where I splurge and where I don’t. The past two years haven’t produced as sharp a drop in expenses as one would have thought. I spent just as much in 2020 & 2021 as I did in 2019 & 2018. Yet, in the past two years, I haven’t been to a concert, a movie theatre, overseas, or inside of restaurants. I’ve been at home, partaking in Netflix, homemade food, and lots of computer games. Despite my at-home-hiding-from-coronavirus existence for the past two years, my annual expenditures have been the same or slightly more than they were in the Before Times.

I’m paying the same amount of money to purchase fewer things. That’s called inflation.

Despite the arrival of this particular money-eater, the basics haven’t changed. I still have to live below my means and invest for growth. My spending power will hold its ground against inflation so long as my returns are higher than the inflation rate.

You owe it to yourself to spend a little bit of the present thinking about the Care and Feeding of Future You Fund. It need not be a lot of time. After all, life is meant to be enjoyed and not wished away. The right amount of time is however long it takes you to set up an automatic transfer from your chequing account to your investment account. When you get paid, a chunk of money should automatically be sent to your investments. Then you forget about that money and go back to your daily life, doing what makes you happy.

Three weeks of 2022 are already in the past. Time flies so very fast! It’s important that you don’t let procrastination stop you from sticking to the basics. You need not know everything before you start. Instead, you start today and you learn as you go.

Get some books from the library. Do a Google search. Spend some time at YouTube University. Check out the education section of Investopedia. Maybe start following some personal finance bloggers. You don’t have to understand everything before you set up an automatic transfer. Have the money accumulating so it’s in place when you’re ready to make your first investment.

In the interest of transparency, I want to tell you a bit more of my story. I started with guaranteed investment certificates. I didn’t understand that GICs don’t beat inflation and that my money wasn’t growing the way I needed it to. At the time, I was concerned with safety. I didn’t want to lose my money. Perfectly understandable! You don’t want to lose your money either, right?

However, I borrowed books from the library and I learned about these things called mutual funds. They were offered by banks and they would give me better returns that GICs. So I switched my money to mutual funds. After a time, I learned about index funds and exchange-traded funds. They were better than mutual funds because they charged lower fees. Today, I’m still investing in ETFs while learning about crypto currency and NFTs. I’ve done some real estate investing but certainly not enough to consider myself an expert.

If anyone were to ask, I’d tell them that I have made many mistakes in my investments. I didn’t have all of the answers when I made my choices. I didn’t always understand the implications of my choices. If I could go back and make different decisions, then I most certainly would. That’s not possible so I continue to follow the first three rules articulated above. Save – invest – learn – repeat.

Wherever you are on your personal finance journey, you should be putting the basics to work for your money. You work hard for it. The least you can do is make sure that your money is working just as hard for you. There’s no time like the present. Take the first step today. Congratulate yourself. Then work on figuring out the next step. Take that step too. Before you know it, you’ll be saving and investing for Future You while still enjoying the gift that is today.

One Less Impediment!

For those about to invest, we salute you! There is now one less impediment between you and your financial goals.

Back in the dark ages, which is when I first started my investment portfolio, buying securities through a brokerage was expensive. For many years, I had automatic contributions withdrawn from my bank account by a private investment company. While I was busy learning about new products, individual investors were gaining the ability to access various products due to the rapid growth of technology. By the time I had learned about exchange traded funds and the importance of low management expense ratios, it was relatively cheap to do online transactions with my brokerage. It took some convincing but I finally moved my portfolio from the investment company to my brokerage. Regardless of who held my portfolio, I continued to dollar-cost average my way into the market each month.

Today, I’m happy to write that market competition has partnered with technology to make investing even easier for today’s investors.

As the number of financial services firms expands, the Big Banks are being forced to stay competitive with trading platforms that offer commission-free trades. This means that the banks’ brokerage arms allow customers to buy certain securities without paying a commission. In other words, it’s free to invest your money in more and more places!

This is is fantastic news. Why? It normally costs $9.95 to place a buy/sell order. For people who believe in dollar-cost averaging into the market, it costs roughly $10 each time a purchase is made. Long-time readers know that I divert a chunk of my paycheque to my investment portfolio every payday. Every 4 weeks, I buy more units in my chosen exchange-traded fund (VXC). I care not whether the market is up or whether it’s down. My plan is to buy and hold for the long-term. The execution of my investment plan is simply: buy more VXC units every 4 weeks and hold onto them.

So I was tickled pink when my brokerage*** announced that it would allow customers to purchase certain securities without paying a commission. My favourite dividend ETFs were both listed (XDV & VDY). Unfortunately, my happiness bubble was quickly pricked by reality. The fates have conspired to keep my equity ETF off the list of the commission-free securities!

This is great news!

Even though I’m still paying commissions, it’s fantastic that there are now so many commission-free options from which people can choose. The upshot is that there is one less impediment between people and their investment goals. Fees, MERs and commissions are all hurdles to clear on the journey to your investment goals.

Think about it. Any money that is not paying for commissions can be re-directed towards investing for your future. You and I both know that compound growth needs time to work. The sooner you start investing your dollars, the better.

Commission-free investing means that you can invest more frequently. Like I said, my dollar-cost averaging plan entails monthly purchases. I made 13 trades each year since I invest every 4 weeks. However, should there ever come a day that my ETF of choice makes it onto the commission-free list, I will be buying more units every two weeks.

Why increase the frequency of buying? Two simple reasons. It would be free to buy more frequently. Also, my money can’t grow unless it’s invested. I want to give compound growth as much time as possible to work its magic.

Do your due diligence.

My brokerage is with one of the Big Six banks. I’d be surprised if all of the big brokerages didn’t have their own list of securities that can be purchased commission-free. If you’re already investing, find out if you still need to pay commissions. And if your brokerage isn’t offering commission-free trades, ask yourself if its other benefits are worth paying commissions. If not, move your portfolio!

I spend a lot of time telling you to be cautious about the management expense ratios that you’re paying. (Again, any MER over 0.50% is way too high!) Commissions are another area where you should be paying close attention. Most big banks will charge you roughly $9.95 to make a trade through their online brokerage platform. It will cost even more if you make the trade over the phone with a human being, assuming that you can connect to real live person.

If you’ve already started to invest, then great – keep it up! Should your securities be on a commission-free list, even better. Now, you can bump up your contribution amount by whatever amount formerly went to paying commissions. Compound growth works faster if your money is invested now instead of later.

And if you’ve not yet begun investing for the Care and Feeding of Future You, what are you waiting for?

There is one less impediment to doing so. Start today!

*** Full disclosure – my investment accounts are with BMO Investorline. While I’d prefer to not pay a commission, I’m certainly not going to alter my investment plan due to this situation.

Inflation is the Non-Stop Money-Eater

Today, I read a Twitter thread about inflation and its impact on money. So many people feel that their paycheques are not going as far as they did before. Their net income is going to shelter, groceries, and utilities. Yet, they feel that it’s harder and harder to survive from one paycheque to the next. Costs are going up while their pay remains the same. They are caught in the grip of inflation, which I like to call the Non-Stop Money-Eater.

I’ve noticed it too. The bulk package of chicken breast at my local grocery store was $27 this time last year. When I went to buy the same package 6 weeks ago, I paid $42. That’s a price jump of $15 in 12 months, or an increase of 55%. That’s inflation at work. My $27 won’t buy me as much chicken today as it did last year. And I’m a Single Person. Every time I leave the grocery store, I wonder how people with families afford their grocery bills. (As a matter of fact, I asked a friend of mine how much their 6-person family spends on groceries in a month. The answer was $2,000. Even accounting for cleaning supplies and personal care products, that’s a huge grocery bill!)

Inflation is a serious problem, for everyone. The lower your income, the more severe its impacts on your household finances. If you’re fortunate enough to have extra money in your budget, then you can better absorb the increased prices. However, your paycheque or investment returns have to continuously outpace inflation. If they don’t, you will eventually reach a point where your income is not enough to cover the higher costs resulting from inflation’s impact on everything.

Inflation Erodes Purchasing Power

Simply put – the Non-Stop Money-Eater will decimate your finances, if given enough time. You can only tighten your belt so much. Even if you got a second or third job, there are only so many hours in a day. You were not put on this Earth to simply work and pay bills. There should be more to life than scrimping from one payday to the next.

At the time of this post, inflation in Canada was at 4.2%. This is the macro number used by the government. Your personal inflation rate might be higher, or lower, depending on your personal expenses. Whether a large number or a small one, the result is the same. Your income is not buying you as much today as it did yesterday. It will take more money to buy the same amount. That means you have less money for everything else. So unless you want to live off your credit cards, or lines of credit, and pay interest to do so, you will have to eliminate something from your budget. Fewer streaming services? A cheaper place to live? Giving up your car?

Again, your life should be more than the daily grind of working, getting paid, paying bills, then working some more. You should be able to breathe without financial anxieties. We can’t all own private jets, third houses, and a stable of Arabian horses. However, you should be able to find your happy medium between barely scraping by and a life of unfathomable extravagance.

For those of you whose incomes are still growing, congrats! You may not have to alter your lifestyle since your purchasing power is keeping up with inflation.

A Few Suggestions

What is the answer to fighting inflation on a personal level? I honestly don’t have a perfect answer that will work well for everyone. I’m not an expert about such things. What I will do is share my opinion on how to dull inflation’s impact if you’re fortunate enough to have some extra money in your budget after you’ve paid for the necessities.

My first suggestion is make good use of your kitchen. I’ve written before about how financially prudent it is to cook the majority of your food at home. A hamburger with fries at restaurants around me will run you atleast $17, and the bottomless soft drink is another $3.50. After tax and tip, the bill is atleast $26. The same money spent at the grocery store combined with 30 minutes in your kitchen will result in far more than 1 hamburger with a side of fries.

Don’t let lack of cooking skills stop you. Thanks to YouTube, you can learn to cook just about anything by watching a few videos and paying attention. Start small then work your way up to the more complicated meals. Maybe you start making your own muffins and cookies so that you don’t have to buy them each day. Then you move on to making simple breakfasts and tasty lunches. Afterwards, you tackle dinner and turn your attention to batch cooking. Your freezer and pantry become your happy places, since they are key to making your tummy and wallet happy too. Much like piano playing and walking, cooking skills get much better with repeated practice. You’ll figure out what you like to eat, and then you’ll master those dishes. Cooking for yourself should be your default choice when you start to feel hungry.

And it’s not too early to start planning for next year. One of my favorite personal finance bloggers has a vegetable garden. Each year, he plants vegetables and harvests them as they ripen. You better believe that his veggie garden saves him a good chunk of money each year. We’re well into autumn and winter’s just around the corner so now’s the time to start thinking about planting next spring. Do you have the room for your own garden? Is there a community garden nearby? Do you have a balcony that can hold a few planters? If you’ve never planted a garden before and you want to, use your downtime in winter to watch and to learn from some gardening videos on YouTube.

My second suggestion is to use your freezer and to stock up on things when they’re on sale. Low-sodium bacon was on sale last week. My mother, my aunts, and I all made sure to get some for our respective freezers. In my corner of the world, bacon is now $1/slice! That was unheard of last year but I doubt the price will fall back to its former level any time soon. My mother and her sisters are all ladies in their 70s & 80s, so they use an old-fashioned app called “a telephone” to share the great prices that they find at the grocery store.

I’m willing to be that you, Dear Reader, have a cell phone. I’ll go out on a limb and assume that you’ll probably want to use apps on your phone to find good prices when you are grocery shopping. Never forget that coupons are your friend. I have an app on my phone that sends me weekly offers on things that I buy most often. When I buy those things, I get points and those points translate to dollars off my grocery total. It’s fantastic to have a bill of $110.77 and only have to pay $0.77 because my points-into-dollars covered the rest.

It should go with out saying that price-matching is an essential tool in your arsenal. Some grocery stores will match a competitor’s price on the same item. This is another way to save money without going to several grocery stores in order to buy the same product at the lowest price. You need to eat, but you don’t have to pay more than necessary to do so.

My third suggestion is to continue investing for the long-term. The capitalist system is not designed to make employees rich. Read that sentence a few more times, and let it sink in until you’ve memorized it better than the alphabet.

Employees’ salaries are a cost of doing business. Every business has a profit-motive. This means that every business benefits by lowering its costs. Lower costs translate into higher profits. Your employer has little, if any, incentive to pay you more money to do your job.

In sharp contrast, there is a built-in incentive to align the interests of investors with the interests of business owners. The corporations need shareholders’ money, or else they wouldn’t sell stock in their company. By investing in low-cost equity exchange-traded funds, you will increase your chances of creating a cash flow that can sustain you. By all means, keep your job if you need it to survive. What I’m telling you is to wear two hats. Be an employee and an investor. If all goes according to plan, then you’ll be doubling your sources of income. Should inflation erode the income from your job, you’ll have your investment income available if you absolutely need it to survive.

No Easy Answers For Everyone

In my humble and inexpert opinion, inflation is not going away any time soon. The cost of necessities will continue to rise, which is not going to be fun. You will need to sit down and figure out how you are going to deal with Non-Stop Money-Eater. What will it take for you to limit its impact on your finances?

Are you doing what you want with your money?

Two thirds of 2021 are in the rearview mirror. You should probably spend a few minutes figuring out if you’re doing what you want with your money.

In other words, is your money moving you closer to or further from your life’s goals?

Maybe dealing with your money is just one-more-thing, and you’re dealing with enough. I get it, really! The pandemic is lasting way longer than we’d expected. The climate change consequences are no longer something to worry about later. The impacts are being seen and felt right now, every single day, all over the world. There’s a lot going on and it’s not all good, so that might make it harder to focus on mastering money.

Be that as it may, there have always been lots of significant events going on in the world. Gues what? There always will be. However, while we’re striving to make the world a better place, you still need to put your money to work. The state of the world doesn’t absolve you of the responsibility you have to Future You.

There is a straight-forward way for amateur investors such as ourselves to invest. It’s our best bet to improve the odds that we’ll be able to live comfortably when we’re no longer sending our bodies and minds to work every day.

Allow me to share my secret with you, again. Put your money on auto-pilot! You’ve got enough to worry about and investing money for your future need not be on that list. Set it up once then let the magic of computers do the rest.

  1. Set up an automatic transfer of a set amount of money from your chequing account to your emergency fund.
  2. Set up a second automatic transfer to your investment account. This can also be your retirement account.
  3. Buy units in equity-based exchange traded funds or index funds with management expense ratios below 0.25%.
  4. Don’t withdraw money from your investment account.
  5. Save. Invest. Learn. Repeat.
  6. Live on whatever’s leftover after these transfers have gone through.

Doing these few things will save your bacon when the time comes. You might feel that you want to spend all of your money right now. After all, tomorrow is promised to no one and you only live once, right? There’s a certain seductive allure to that perspective. Resist! You’re going to need money for all of the tomorrow’s headed your way. You might not know how many of them you’ll get, but the odds are very good that you’re going to need money for most of them.

The bottom line is that you should be doing what you want with your money. If you’re not, figure out why and do what needs to be done to change that situation.

Invest to Beat Inflation

The chatter in the system is that inflation is coming.

Hardly surprising. I would venture to say that inflation is already here. Groceries are more expensive than they were a year ago. Gas prices have risen in my corner of the world. Friends who need lumber are sharing horror stories about the price. There’s not a doubt in my mind that inflation has arrived…and it’s going to get worse before it gets better.

I’m going to suggest that you invest to beat inflation.

First of all, you need to know that I’m not an economist. I am not in any way certified to give you an opinion on how to invest. I know what has worked for me in my circumstances. There are no guarantees that my strategy will work for you in yours.

Secondly, I’ve been around long enough to know that paycheques don’t rise in line with the increased cost of living. It sure would be nice if they did, but they don’t. Your take-home pay will stay the same even though the prices of what you want to buy will continue to go up. In other words, your paycheque has to stretch farther just so you can continue to live way you want. This is inflation at work.

There are several ways to fix this. You could get a raise, or find a higher paying job. Great. If your employer chooses to pay you more money, then pat yourself on the back. Keep in mind that there’s no reason for your boss to give you a raise if she doesn’t want to. I mean, you could be replaced, right? And maybe the next person would do your job for less money… Trust me – this thought may have crossed your boss’ mind a time or two.

If a raise isn’t an option that your employer is willing to pursue, then you can always search for a higher paying job. Should you be lucky enough to find one, hooray! The higher take-home pay can now go towards paying higher purchase prices for all those things that are more expensive today than they were yesterday.

A third, less palatable option to combat inflation, is to cut out all the things that are now too expensive for your still-the-same-size-paycheque. That might mean giving up your gym membership, extracurricular/educational courses, cable, streaming services, books. You might have to move in with roommates, or stop eating out, or give up buying new clothes. There are many ways to cut back, but you can only cut back so much. There comes a point where there’s no more fat to trim.

I don’t want you to get to that point.

What I want is for you to invest to beat inflation.

How does that work, Blue Lobster?

Investing in equities over the long-term results in returns that are higher than the rate of inflation. Equities is a fancy way of referring to the stock market.

You cannot invest in GICs at the bank that only pay you 1.6% and expect to beat inflation. For one thing, inflation may be higher than 1.6%. Secondly, interest is fully taxable at your marginal tax rate. If your marginal tax rate is 27%, then you’re not earning 1.6% on that GIC. You’re only earning 1.168% (= 1.6% x [1-0.27]). Thirdly, GICs lock up your money for atleast a year. The main benefit of GICs is safety. Unfortunately, the cost of safety is too high because your money will be ravaged by inflation. You will effectively be falling further behind financially since you’re only keeping 1.168% of your GIC’s return while inflation is increasing prices by 1.7%.

Investment returns > inflation rate. Good.

Inflation rate > investment returns. Bad.

To avoid the second scenario, invest in the stock market through diversified equity-based exchange traded funds and/or index funds. Consistently save and invest your money into stocks via these investment vehicles then leave it alone to grow. Do not check it every day. The stock market is volatile. In other words, the value of your account will go up and down but the trend over the long term will be upward. If volatility bothers you, then the answer is to not check your investments every day. Avoiding the stock market is most definitely not the solution to your aversion to the unpredictable nature of the stock market.

Stuff money into your TFSA and RRSP and buy equity-based ETFs and index funds. It might take you a few weeks to max out your contribution room. It might take you a few years. That doesn’t matter too much. The important thing is to start today. Get your money working for you immediately. Once you’ve maxed out your registered investment accounts, then keep investing your money in your brokerage account, aka: your non-registered investment account.

How do my investments beat inflation, Blue Lobster?

Over the long term, your investments will earn a return that is higher than inflation. Your registered investments will have the added benefit of doing so without being ravaged by taxes.

For example, assume that inflation is at 1.5% and your investments return 10% over the long term. Also assume that your tax rate is 27%. Your registered investments will be beating inflation by a rate of 8.5% (= 10%-1.5%). Remember! The money that is earned inside your TFSA and your RRSP grows tax-free so you need not concern yourself with your tax rate.

Money earned outside of the shelter of your TFSA and your RRSP is subject to tax. For this reason, you’ll still be beating inflation in your investment account but not by the same amount. The money earned in your non-registered investment account will be beating inflation by 6.205% (= [10%-1.5%] x [1-0.27]).

Disciplining yourself to stomach the volatility of the stock market will be very profitable for you. When the time comes to start living off your investments, they will have grown nicely. Your investments will be more than ample to cover the inflation adjusted costs of living. Ask your grandparents if, when they were in their 20s and 30s, they’d ever imagined a brand new car costing $35,000. Ask your parents if they’d ever thought people would pay $5 for a cup of coffee. Now imagine yourself 35 years from now at the grocery store and realizing that the price of a single loaf of store-brand bread is $9.

By investing in equities today, you will be taking a big step towards outpacing inflation. Start today by taking the following steps:

  1. Open a TFSA, an RRSP, or a brokerage account.
  2. Every time you’re paid, have a pre-determined chunk of your paycheque sent to your investment account. Do this by setting up an automatic transfer from your chequing account to your investment account, ie. TFSA, RRSP or brokerage account.
  3. Leave the investment account alone to do its job.
  4. If available, participate in the dividend re-investment plan. You won’t be spending the dividends. Instead, they will continue to be re-invested for the long haul.
  5. Rest a little bit easier knowing that the long-term average return on your investments is higher than inflation.

You can take steps today to mitigate inflation’s impact on your life tomorrow. Just do it!

Mistakes with Money – Hindsight is 20/20

As I’ve said before, you need not make every mistake yourself. You can learn from the mistakes of others and make better choices for yourself. Luckily for you, my hindsight is 20/20. If you’re facing the choice between paying off your debt or investing your money for growth, perhaps my experience can offer you some insight into the best choice of your circumstances.

Roughly 14.5 years ago, I had a choice between paying off my primary mortgage or investing a six-figure lump sum of money into the stock market. At the time, I owned two rental properties and my tenants both told me they would be moving. Faced with the prospect of having empty rental units, I immediately chose to sell. It literally never occurred to me that I could get new tenants. I was a young landlord who hadn’t heard of people like Brandon Turner of Bigger Pockets or Coach Carson. No one in my family owned rental properties so I didn’t know where to find the mentorship or guidance that would have opened my eyes to my many options.

Unfortunately, I reacted poorly and made a decision out of fear. Instead of doing a basic Google search on what to do when tenants move out, I sold off my rentals within weeks of each other. The housing market in my corner of the world was on fire!!! I’m sure it was the easiest money my realtor had ever made.

I took the proceeds from my rental properties and paid off my primary residence. Within a few weeks, I was completely debt-free! Woohoo!

What would’ve happened if I’d invested that money and kept my mortgage?

Firstly, I would not have had to pay a penalty. The mists of time have obscured the exact numbers, but I do seem to recall paying a penalty for breaking the mortgage on my primary home. Where I live, you can break a mortgage without penalty if you’re selling your home. However, if you’re simply paying off the mortgage, then the bank wants you to pay the interest that would’ve been paid as per the mortgage contract.

I was younger, financially un-sophisticated, and completely committed to being debt-free. So what did I do? I paid a 5-figure penalty to break my mortgage. That was definitely a money mistake! I had the cash from my two rental properties. I could’ve simply carved out a chunk of it to cover the remaining years’ payments under my mortgage agreement, and thereby avoided the penalty, while investing the rest. When the mortgage was up for renewal in a few years after the sale of my rentals, I could have just paid off the mortgage debt in full. Alternatively, I could have invested the whole lump sum and simply kept up with my regular mortgage payments until the mortgage was discharged.

By paying off the mortgage on my primary home, I didn’t invest as much as I could have in the stock market as soon as I possibly could. If I’d invested those proceeds in the market, then I’d be a hell of a lot closer to my original goal of retiring at 50.

We know that, up until the onset of the pandemic, the stock market has rewarded investors with a very long bull-run. Full equity portfolios have done amazingly well between 2009 and 2020. Brace yourself! My rental proceeds were over $100,000. Had I been as wise then as I am now, I would’ve invested that lump-sum of cash and continued with my life-long habit of investing a chunk of my paycheque every time I got paid. My investment portfolio would’ve definitely landed me in the Double-Comma Club by now…. and my mortgage would still have been paid off in good order.

Instead, I focused on becoming debt-free. I chose to pay off my debt instead of investing for my future. My actions were not aligned with my goals.

Why weren’t they aligned?

That’s a good question. Thinking back, my own ignorance about investing is the root cause of the mis-alignment. I didn’t know as much then as I do now. Also, I’d been watching the global monetary chaos created by the financial crisis in 2007-2008 and I wanted no part of it. Being debt-free felt safe. I didn’t have the luxury of relying on someone else’s paycheque to support my household. I very much craved the security of owing not a single nickel to anyone! In other words, I let my ignorance and my fear of being in debt guide my actions.

That global financial crisis caused the stock market to drop. Today, I know that such declines are to be relished because they are excellent buying opportunities. Steep drops mean that the stock market has gone on sale, and that it’s time to load up on quality investments in good companies. Back then, I naively determined that the “smart” course of action was to wait until things settled down before investing any money in the market. As I’ve written before, I waited far too long to start investing. Sigh… this is why hindsight is 20/20. Coulda-woulda-shoulda! I delayed the implementation of my investment strategy for years. It was the wrong move!

Now that I’m older, and wiser, I realize that I should have invested my lump sum. The market started its recovery in 2009. Sure, I would have invested in 2006 and then I would have gone through the rough years until the recovery started. It wouldn’t have been terribly fun, but it would have been quite profitable. Like I said earlier, that course of action would have gotten me much closer to my financial goals.

Don’t feel too, too sorry for me. Like I said, I used that lump sum to pay off my house. I haven’t had a mortgage on my principle residence in over 14 years! Trust me when I say it’s a good feeling. Not having a mortgage means a smaller overhead for my life. My emergency fund need not include 6-9 months of mortgage payments. I don’t have to worry that the bank is going to take away my home. Instead of forking over mortgage payments, I can make contributions to my investment portfolio. I sleep better knowing that my largest debt is in my rearview mirror.

Like they say – if I knew then what I know now, I would’ve made different choices. Hindsight is 20/20…c’est la vie!

Housing Prices & Interest Rates

When I was a kid, one of the things I learned from my mother was that interest rates are inversely correlated to housing prices. If interest rates are going down, then housing prices are going up.

Over the last 12 months, I’ve seen this lesson play out in real life. By the time this blog post goes live, we will have passed the one-year anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, there are cities in this country where the housing market is red-hot. People are tripping over themselves to buy homes and they’re “winning” bidding wars to do so.

Five-year mortgage rates in my corner of the world had been on offer for as low as 1.84% up until just recently. At the time of writing this article, they’re slowly creeping up but a few can still be found at just around 2%. The Talking Heads in the media are predicting that 5-year rates will increase steadily over the next year. They say that this will be due to the economy fully re-opening as everyone gets their vaccine.

Who am I to argue with the Talking Heads?

The corollary to my mother’s great insight is that house prices drop as interest rates rise. This is due to the fact that fewer people can afford house payments when the cost of borrowing increases. Fewer people buying is a fancy way of saying lower demand. Less demand for something forces sellers to drop prices in order to sell their goods. In the housing market, rising interest rates are very strongly linked to decreasing housing prices.

For the past 10 years or so, the interest rates for mortgages have been less than 4%. I can tell you that my very first mortgage – taken out nearly 20 years ago – was for 6.5%. That seems astronomically high by today’s standards! When I was teenager and working part time as a grocery store cashier, I worked with folks who were thrilled to get a mortgage at 8%. The super-low mortgage rates of the past decade have been normalized, and I worry that people forget that rates can also move in the other direction.

Two Minds

I’m of two minds when it comes to housing. Buying a house was a very smart move for me. I was fortunate enough to buy what I needed at a price that was less than 3 times my gross income. The mortgage payments were less than 30% of my take-home pay. I could afford the repairs and maintenance that come with a house. Taxes and insurance weren’t an onerous burden on top of these other costs. The monthly nut associated with my shelter did not inhibit my ability to invest for retirement, travel, and have a bit of fun with my family and friends.

In short, buying a house was a good move for me… 20 years ago.

Today, twenty years later, I’m not so sure that buying a house would be a good financial move for me. For starters, I would have to choose between servicing the monthly nut of homeownership and every other financial goal. My mortgage, property taxes, insurance, repairs & maintenance would render me house-poor for a very long time. There wouldn’t be room in my budget for things like retirement savings, travel, entertainment, vehicle replacement, or those little luxuries that make like easier. My financial life would revolve entirely around paying for my housing, and there would be no room for my other money priorities.

I used to think that renting was a bad idea. However, my perspective has become more nuanced. If renting allows one to have a balanced life, then I think it might be a good idea. Of course, that balance has to include maxing out all retirement savings and building an investing portfolio. Those investments need to be big enough to pay for rental accommodations when the paycheques stop arriving. Whether you own a house or rent your space, you need to pay for shelter one way or another.

Cheap rates aren’t here to stay.

Today’s very low 5-year mortgage rates will go up. Securing a mortgage at 1.84% is wonderful, but that rate is likely only going to be locked in for 5 years. (And only for those who were lucky enough to grab it!) At renewal, the rate might be 3.5% or higher. Can your crystal ball predict the future perfectly? Will your budget be able to survive the mortgage payment increase that will come with a higher mortgage rate? Are you positive that you’ll still have the same income that you have now?

Even if your job’s salary stays the same, will your other expenses do the same? I’ve noticed that the cost of my streaming service goes up every 18 months or so. The price of food hasn’t gone down, ever. Taxes seem to only ever move in one direction. The list goes on. Life gets more expensive every year, yet salaries and wages don’t always go up in tandem with the increased expenses of every day life.

So even if you were only of the lucky ones to grab a super-cheap mortgage rate for a five-year portion of your mortgage, I strongly urge you to calculate how much your mortgage payment will increase when you renew. It’s not too, too crazy to believe that the bond market will push the five year rate up by 50 basis points each year for the next five years. Add 2.5% to your current rate and see what your new payment will be. Can you handle it?

Alternatives

Your first option is to pick rich parents. It’s been my observation that some parents with an excess of money are willing to help their offspring purchase a home. Financially speaking, it’s wonderful to have that kind of help to get onto the property ladder.

Not all of us can pick our parents, so that means being a little more creative.

If I were starting out today, I’d be looking at becoming a landlord. Either I’d try to buy a house with a rental suite or I would have roommates. There would have to be someone else around to contribute to the mortgage payments. If my salary paid for the minimum monthly mortgage payment, then the tenant’s rent would be what I would use for the extra payments to principle.

Would it be ideal? No. Would it have to last forever? Also, no.

A third alternative would be waiting to buy. Like I said earlier, house prices will come down as mortgage rates go up. Figure out how much of a mortgage you can afford. This number will be different than what the bank says you can afford. After all, you’re the one who’ll be responsible for the payments so look at your budget and be realistic.

Once you know how much mortgage you can comfortably carry, open an account at EQ Bank and start salting that mortgage payment away. This benefits you two ways. First, you’ll get used to having a mortgage payment since you’ll have to make that payment once you’ve signed the mortgage documents. Second, this money will help you make as large a down payment as possible.

I’m not trying to dissuade you from buying a house. Truly, I’m not. I just want you to think long and hard about the financial commitment that owning your own home will entail.

In a world without pensions, I am not persuaded that it’s a good idea for a person to spend 25-30 years paying off a mortgage without the ability to save for retirement. A mortgage debt that leads to an extended hand-to-mouth lifestyle is rarely a good thing. It limits options and inhibits one’s ability to pursue their true dreams, goals, and desires.